Last week, BTC's weekly line broke below the key trend line of the annual line MA52, and today at noon it fell below 90, the panic index reached 9, and I believe many frens are exceptionally worried. Is the Bear Market really upon us?

Based on the known information, I cannot yet definitively conclude that the Bear Market has begun. I believe that players in the market have already split into several factions: one that still believes in a bull market and another that is firmly shorting. However, I believe the faction with the most people in the current market is the swing faction, and they are all struggling with the question: should they add positions to bottom fish now? Or should they cut losses and exit?

I shot out 40% of my 10% bullet for adding to my BTC position today, with an average price of the three orders landing at 91.1K, and I didn't manage to hit any orders below 90K. After dinner, I accidentally saw a video that I personally feel is quite good. The focus of the video is not on discussing the bull and bear market of BTC, but rather on whether you still believe in the future of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry at this moment. As an individual player, how should you face the current situation.

I tried to extract the central idea of the video to restore this relatively high-quality logical thinking. I believe this will be a profound inspiration for many frens. Next, we won't talk about complex data, just focus on the most core question: should we add or not? How to add?

First, the video assesses the current stage: the turning point of the bull-bear boundary. The reason it is important now is that the next one or two months will likely determine the bull or bear trend of BTC. The current price is hovering below the psychological support line of 100K, while the average cost of large institutions' positions is around 74000.

If it really turns into a Bear Market, the price may approach the institutional cost zone.

If the upward momentum after May 2021 can continue, the next target is expected to reach 135000.

The nearly double price difference in the middle means that current decisions will directly affect future profits. But rather than discussing "what price to buy," I would like to talk about the core aspect that many people overlook--time.

More important than price is: your time cost.

My friends who often pay attention to me know that I always value time more than technical indicators and data. Because time cost is the most uncontrollable and easily overlooked.

The current price of 93,000 is indeed much lower than the previous 126,000. Some people say, "Holding long-term will definitely yield a rise," and I don't deny that. But the key question is not "Will it rise?" but rather "When will it rise?"

Anyone can believe that BTC will rise to 200,000 in 20 years, but how many 20 years can a person have?

In the cryptocurrency space, we are not betting on the 'distant future', but rather on 'how much return we can get in a controllable timeframe'. This view is similar to some of my opinions in my posts, just like when I first sold 10% of my large BTC position at 122,000. The original plan was to start selling at 130,000, but I missed it by 8,000 and then sold another 10% at 123,000. You might say I was greedy; if the price goes up afterwards, then this move would definitely be a missed opportunity.

At that time, my dynamic response was that I would adjust my trading plan in a timely manner based on the actual trends combined with time nodes. I wouldn’t judge my decisions based on single-instance profits; the key is whether I can accept the "time cost paid for this choice." Looking back now, this decision is reasonable. Even if this time it could hit 150,000, I won’t regret this 20% position decision.

Time cost is very important to me personally, after all, I am not a wealthy player. So I have emphasized more than once that everyone’s capital will have a cost; if you are very wealthy, it might be relatively low, but if you are borrowing, then the time cost becomes very high. In case the market trend does not meet our expectations, you must confront this core issue in a timely manner.

The four-year cycle is a test of consensus on time. You might think this way, but will the Wall Street main players think like this? I don't know, but I believe there must be some underlying logical changes, so I have delayed the time for holding my position by about six months.

If we are to choose to enter the market again at this moment, or to hold our positions firmly, it is best to ask ourselves the following 3 questions, and the answers will naturally emerge (I personally believe that this question is suitable for BTC, ETH, and some valuable mainstream coins; in fact, this perspective was also expressed from a different angle during the live broadcast):

1. If it really turns into a Bear Market at this moment, how long can you endure the bearish market? 1 year? 2 years? Or will you panic and collapse as soon as it falls below a certain point?

2. During the holding period, do you have any better investment opportunities? For example, your main business or side business that can generate higher returns for your capital?

3. Looking back three years from now, will you regret not adding to your position now? Or will you regret not pulling out funds in time to do something safer?

Once you have thought through the above questions, you can formulate relevant coping strategies based on your different situations:

1. If you can accept a holding period of 2-4 years and have no better investment options: you can gradually increase your position, without getting hung up on whether it's 93K or 88K; in the long run, the small price difference doesn't matter much.

2. If you are only willing to give it half a year to one year, or simply do not want to endure the Bear Market: do not add to your position anymore. Either set some of your holdings as a long-term experimental position and gradually pull out the rest during the rebound; or simply accept the current situation, treat this money as a ten-year lottery ticket, and then focus on things that can yield results within one or two years, ensuring that you can make money.

3. As I mentioned in my previous update, if I want to use the remaining 30% of my large position to add to my BTC holdings, my general plan would be executed as follows (for reference only): increase positions in three stages -- now, establish a small position to avoid missing the rebound; increase part of the position when it falls to the 74000 institutional cost area during market panic; if it breaks below the institutional cost and the public opinion shouts that the Bitcoin bubble has burst, I will fire my last bullet.

Then I generated a trading plan table with AI, maybe you can refer to it. In the end, I think the video script is written very well, and it summarizes like this:

The essence of investing is about choosing "who to entrust your time to." Investing is very similar to dating; you may invest your time and energy, but it doesn't necessarily develop as you expect. The volatility in the crypto space far exceeds that of ordinary markets, so don't naively believe that "holding for ten years will definitely make you money"; you might not even be able to pay for insurance for ten years, let alone the crypto assets that can surge or plummet at any moment.

Now, adding to your position is not about "choosing the price", but rather "choosing whether to dedicate a certain period of your life to Bitcoin (or the altcoin you believe in)". Think clearly about the time you can invest, understand the risks you can bear, and if one day you are willing to commit your funds and time to BTC, you will likely not be swayed by market emotions. (Forwarded)