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Yesterday, after BTC broke 9 and ETH broke 3, they are attempting to brew a Rebound. Interestingly, the phenomenon is that while US stocks continue to plummet, the crypto world has not followed suit with further declines; instead, it has started to lead the market upward.
1. BTC briefly fell below 90,000 USD, with major support at 85,000. If the volatility continues to amplify and unexpected events occur, further price retracement cannot be ruled out. However, as long as sentiment stabilizes gradually, we are already close to a phase bottom range.
2. The super liquidation wave in October clearly damaged confidence, and coupled with the market's growing skepticism about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, the overall sentiment in the crypto world is weak.
3. Due to the delay in key economic data, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path have intensified, and Powell is under significant pressure. Currently, the core of the market is that it is preemptively digesting the possibility of "no interest rate cuts in December," bringing valuations and positions back to a more reasonable level. However, I believe that as long as CPI does not explode and inflation does not unexpectedly rebound, the Federal Reserve will most likely choose to cut interest rates in December.
4. Additional potential benefits: Expectations for the new Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump has stated that the next Federal Reserve Chairman has been determined. Although the name has not been disclosed, the market generally believes that the new chairman is likely to promote more aggressive interest rate cuts after taking office, which will shift investors' focus from short-term disturbances to a long-term easing cycle.