#加密市场回调 Bitcoin fell below the 90,000 mark, and market sentiment quickly turned sour. However, a calm review of the data suggests that this correction may not be so pessimistic—from a historical cycle perspective, it has been 19 months since the last halving in November 2025, which indeed places it in the later stage of a bull market, but this does not mean the market has ended.

The key question is whether the technical structure has broken down. Looking back at recent movements, although the retreat from the high of 125,000 was sharp, the long-term trend line in the 85,000 to 88,000 range still provides support—last night’s low touched 86,000 before quickly rebounding, and this line has temporarily held. If the main players really want to distribute, they usually wouldn't dump directly at this level; a more likely path is a rebound to the previous high of 120,000 to 130,000 to complete distribution. This combination of technical repair and inducement to trap sellers is common in historical markets.

Based on this judgment, my current strategy is: take advantage of the formation of a short-term bottom at 86,000 and the price hovering around 92,000 to gradually build positions. However, it must be emphasized that this is not blindly bottom-fishing—position management and stop-loss discipline are more important than anything.

Specifically, the exit plan is executed in three tiers: when the price rebounds to 115,000, first reduce positions by 30% to lock in some profits; if it reaches 125,000, reduce another 40% to lower risk; if it can truly surge to 140,000, then fully exit. Meanwhile, a strict stop-loss must be set—if it effectively breaks below 87,000, exit immediately to preserve capital, which is always the top priority.

The end of a bull market often tests human nature: there is the last wave of explosive profits, but also the hidden risk of a rapid crash. My strategy is simple—use strict risk control to contain risks, implement staged operations to smooth volatility, and wait for the market to give answers. This approach is fundamentally about seeking excess returns while risks are controllable, not reckless gambling. Whether I can hold onto the final gains depends on whether the technical support can hold and whether I can stick to discipline.