#加密市场回调 Last night, the decline of the Nasdaq directly erased the recent gains. It fell back to the weekly MA20, hitting a new stage low. The key is that the trading volume increased while the price continued to fall—any sign of a rebound? I can't smell it for now.

$BTC Here too, there's a divergence between volume and price, and the signal isn't clear enough yet. Usually, you need to wait for a long lower shadow on a big red candle, or a doji, inverted hammer, or similar pattern, combined with increased volume on the daily and weekly charts, to consider it stable.

On the 14th, I pinned a post saying that the contract liquidation in the 106000 range is concentrated around 85000. At that time, I thought it might oscillate for a month or so, but it crashed within a week. Normally, reaching this level would cause many longs to be liquidated, forming a pin bar, with shorts taking profits and then a quick rebound—yet, the K-line shows no sign of this. So, I need to consider the next zone: the lower boundary at 99000, with liquidation prices around 80,000.

But since it's not far from 85000, I still plan to place half a position 3-5 points below the current price, and a full position at 10-15 points to prevent a big dump from hitting 80,000.

Why do I dare to place orders when signals are unclear?

First, 85000 has already fallen nearly 40% from the previous high, making it a good candidate for dollar-cost averaging. When it was over 100,000, many dared to buy in aggressively. Now that the price has come down and the gap from the high has widened, people are hesitant? Looking at the long term, there's still about 40% room to reach the previous high.

Second, many coins are showing a secondary bottom divergence on the daily chart. For example, (, the MACD is below zero, with the fast and slow lines crossing at 1-2, forming a divergence. At 2-3), the crossover hasn't fully happened yet$ETC , indicating a secondary divergence. Moreover, each crossover occurs at a new low in price. In other words, the only missing piece is a bullish crossover below zero. Although there could be three divergences, the second divergence already meets my criteria for opening a position.

Of course, the reason I dare to add to my position amid uncertain signals is that I had already liquidated most of my holdings before the big drop. Even if the price falls to 80,000 and my orders get filled, I’ll still have less than 60% of my position left and enough bullets to handle a black swan. So, adding to positions depends on my overall holdings situation.