Recently, there has been something causing a stir in the English community that not many people in the Chinese circle have noticed — over in Japan, a potential earthquake that could impact global asset pricing is brewing.

Let me provide some background. For the past thirty years, Japan has been the "invisible faucet" of global funds. Institutions have taken advantage of the carry trade (, borrowing nearly cost-free yen and then pouring it into U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and even the cryptocurrency market. This practice has supported trillions of dollars in global liquidity and has kept many asset prices at high levels for a long time.

But now the style has changed drastically.

Japan's long-term government bond yields have experienced significant fluctuations in recent weeks: the 20-year yield has approached 2.8%, and the 40-year yield is nearing 3.7%. This is not a mild correction, but rather the interest rate spring that has been suppressed for decades suddenly snapping back.

What risks are hidden behind this? Simply put, three points:
First, the cost of borrowing money has skyrocketed. Institutions that used to get yen for free now have to weigh the costs.
Secondly, once the yen exchange rate fluctuates sharply, a large number of arbitrage positions may be forced to close to stop losses.
Thirdly, once the carry trade reverses, trillions of dollars will be withdrawn from the global market - this is not a retreat, it is a tide going out.

When the wind is favorable, Japan's monetary easing supports the global market; when the wind is unfavorable, Japan's tightening can drown everything. In the face of such macroeconomic currents, the short-term fluctuations of BTC and ETH can really only be considered small ripples.

The market has always assumed that Japan would not move, but now it has.

Personal suggestion: Don't rush to buy the dip, stay observant, and keep some cash on hand. It's okay to consider entering the next round after this wave of macro turbulence passes.