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BlackRock pro said back then that XRP could reach 32 dollars, what about now?

Interesting news has arrived. BlackRock's current head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, and Stanford economist Susan Athey jointly published a study in 2018 that estimated the “reasonable value” of XRP at $32. At that time, Bitcoin was only $7000, and XRP was just $0.50.

Their logic is as follows:

  • The Story of BTC: Growing from a daily trading volume of $5.6 billion to $28.2 billion, if it stores wealth like gold, its value could reach $45,000-$93,000. After applying a 25% survival probability discount, a range of $13,600-$28,100 is provided. The result is that BTC is now at $112,800, exceeding expectations.

  • The Story of XRP: Daily trading volume is expected to reach 190 billion - 556 billion (covering remittances, foreign exchange, corporate transfers). If it accounts for 15-30% of global stored value, the fair value could reach $6.37 - $32.91. After adjusting for a 25% success probability, it is adjusted to $1.59 - $8.23.

The part that hits reality has arrived:

Seven years later today:

  • BTC: $112800 (exceeding model expectations) ✅
  • XRP: $1.90 (far from $32)❌

In the same market, XRP only increased by less than 5 times, while BTC rose by more than 15 times. Why? Most people blame the regulators - the SEC lawsuit in 2020 restricted XRP's development window, while BTC benefited from the dividends of ETFs and corporate entry during the same period.

Another reality is that Ripple's “On-Demand Liquidity” service, which it once hoped for, did not become the main player in global payments. Instead, Ripple has turned to other tracks such as stablecoins, and the original payment narrative has gradually faded.

Current On-chain Data: XRP market value is $168.4 billion (accounting for 4.5% of the total crypto market), with a daily trading volume of $6.2 billion. There's still a long way to go compared to the target of $32.

XRP-0.05%
BTC0.47%
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