Recently, the market has sent out an easily overlooked signal: Japan has launched a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus package. At first glance, this seems bullish, but upon closer inspection, things might not be so simple.

For decades, many global institutions have engaged in yen carry trades—borrowing ultra-low interest rate money from Japan and investing it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The premise of this strategy is that Japan maintains long-term zero interest rates. But now, the situation has changed: Japan’s 20-year government bond yield has soared to 2.8%, and the 40-year yield has climbed to 3.7%. With borrowing costs rising, capital that relied on carry trades naturally needs to reassess.

The timing is also quite delicate. On December 1, the Federal Reserve will halt quantitative tightening; on the 4th, Ethereum has a critical upgrade; and on the 18th, there’s the Fed’s interest rate cut decision. Connecting these three events, it's clear that the liquidity environment is indeed shifting.

The recent volatility in ETH and BTC is, to some extent, a microcosm of these macro adjustments. Leverage positions are being liquidated, and market sentiment is cautious. Some seasoned players have already started to reduce their exposure, raising their cash ratios to over 50%, just waiting for these key moments in December to settle before making further moves.

Is now the time to bottom fish? It’s not entirely out of the question, but at the very least, you need to be clear about what you’re betting on. Are you betting on a rapid policy shift, or on technical upgrades creating new narratives? If you can’t answer these questions, then staying light and observing might be the more rational choice.

Ultimately, the market never lacks opportunities—it lacks the patience to survive and wait for them. This round of liquidity restructuring isn’t over yet; the real action in the coming weeks will be crucial.