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The crash in mid-October is still fresh in our minds, and now in November we're facing a potential government shutdown—no wonder the crypto space is on edge.
What's even more frustrating is that no one has any real confidence about the market's direction. Just look: Galaxy Digital slashed its year-end forecast from $185,000 to $120,000, while JPMorgan turned around and claimed BTC could hit $170,000 in the next six to twelve months. The divergence is ridiculous.
At the end of the day, crypto prices are driven by one thing—money. When US dollar liquidity is loose, hot money floods into high-risk assets and Bitcoin takes off; as soon as liquidity tightens, funds quickly retreat to Treasuries and cash for safety, and prices drop. This record-breaking government shutdown has left the Treasury Department with nearly a trillion dollars frozen, paralyzing liquidity and affecting global financial markets. Bitcoin? Of course it’s not immune. So you’ll notice, behind the liquidity shifts, political maneuvering is the real culprit.
The local elections in early November were a blowout win for the Democrats—maybe a sign for the 2026 midterms? Will the Fed cut rates in December or not? Every move from the White House is under the microscope. Each event is reshaping the market’s expectations for liquidity.
So here’s the question: As we close out 2025 and head into 2026, where is Bitcoin headed? Who will come out on top—bulls or bears? We’ve summarized the core arguments from both sides.
Here’s the bear case: