The Fed may face a big embarrassment this time.

They scheduled the interest rate meeting on December 10th before the release of two key employment reports - and employment data is precisely the crux of whether to lower interest rates. UBS's latest research report directly pointed out: the Fed is very likely to push the meeting back by a week, otherwise it will have to make a decision in a "blindly optimistic" state.

This matter actually has historical basis. In 1971 and 1974, the Fed adjusted the meeting times due to special circumstances. The "Federal Reserve Act" itself does not set a strict date; it only requires that meetings be held at least four times a year, and the specific dates are quite flexible.

What is the core of the problem?

In the past, a single employment report could lead to a sharp turn in policy direction, but now the Fed plans to make a decision after missing two reports. If they insist on holding a meeting on December 10, it would basically be like making decisions with their eyes closed.

For the market, if the meeting is really postponed, it will certainly stir up a wave of policy expectations in the short term. However, in the long run, it at least allows decision-making to be based on complete data. The market has already indicated an over 80% probability of a rate cut in December, and any slight changes in the schedule will likely cause significant fluctuations in the market.

(Content is based on UBS research report compilation and does not constitute any investment advice)