Source: CoinTribune Original Title: Strong Dollar Meets Strong Bitcoin Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/strong-dollar-meets-strong-bitcoin/

Bitcoin Rebound: An Unexpected Support from the Dollar?

Bitcoin started the week on a bullish note, rising back above $86,000 after a sharp drop on Friday to $80,600, its lowest level since April.

This rebound occurs in a particular macroeconomic context, as data published regarding employment in the United States surprised markets, which reacted quickly both in traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies.

Key Factors Triggering This Recovery

• The non-farm payroll report (NFP) showed 119,000 job creations against 53,000 expected, a figure twice the forecast
• This performance helped push the Dollar Index (DXY) above 100, reaching a six-month high
• Despite this dollar strength, usually a negative signal for risky assets, BTC bounced strongly
• The New York Fed president introduced a more accommodative note, stating that “the weakness in the labor market is today a greater risk than inflation”

Another factor supporting market sentiment concerns monetary policy expectations. According to CME Group, the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December jumped to 78.9%, up from 44% a week before.

This change in perception briefly favored risky assets, including bitcoin. However, dissenting voices persist within the Fed, illustrating internal tensions over the monetary schedule.

A Deceptive Rally? Technical Signals of a Bullish Trap

While bitcoin’s rise temporarily improved market sentiment, some analysts warn against a bullish illusion fueled by the relative weakness of the dollar rather than a recovery based on solid fundamentals.

Among them, technical analysts believe the last BTC peak reached in October against the dollar could correspond to a “B-wave rally” in an Elliott corrective sequence.

To support this analysis, reference is made to the BTC/Gold ratio, which shows a downtrend despite the bitcoin rebound against the dollar. This structural underperformance compared to gold would reflect a latent weakness in the BTC market.

According to projections, this ratio would enter a corrective phase which could last until December or January 2026, consistent with the bitcoin halving cycle. These technical signals therefore suggest that the current rebound could mask a distribution phase, or even precede a more durable trend reversal.

Conclusion

Despite its rebound above $86,000, the bitcoin price remains subject to macroeconomic uncertainties. Amid contradictory data and fragile technical signals, caution prevails among analysts.