#美国非农数据超预期 In the past two years, it has fallen quite badly, sliding from $237 in 2021 to now hovering around $2-3. However, to be honest, its ecosystem has been quietly working during the bear market.

Let's first talk about the technical aspect. After the launch of FVM (Filecoin Virtual Machine), the number of smart contract applications has exceeded 4,700, with a total locked amount of 30 million FIL. More importantly, the number of developers is increasing at a rate of 20% per month. What does this indicate? At the very least, it proves that this chain is still alive and doing relatively well.

In terms of storage capacity, FIL currently boasts 23EB of network storage, accounting for about 70% of the entire decentralized storage market. Although up-and-coming players like Arweave are chasing, the leader's position is still stable in the short term.

But the problem is also very obvious. The architecture of FIL is inherently suitable for cold data storage—those archived files that are not frequently accessed. However, what the market needs now is hot data storage, which requires fast response times and the ability to retrieve data at any time. As a result, the storage utilization rate is less than 10%, with a large amount of space idle. Additionally, 80% of miners' income comes from block rewards, and in order to recoup their costs, they can only continue to sell off FIL, which has been putting downward pressure on the coin price.

The AI wave has indeed brought about a massive demand for data storage, but traditional cloud services occupy 90% of the market. FIL has not yet been able to compete with giants like AWS and Google Cloud in terms of retrieval speed and cost control.

October 2026 will be a watershed moment. At that time, FIL will undergo a halving, and with the official lock-up period ending, daily selling pressure could be reduced by more than 50%. If several AI collaborations materialize by then and the supply side tightens, it’s not impossible for the price to soar to $6-10. However, if technological upgrades lag behind and the ecosystem is taken over by other projects, it may continue to fluctuate in the range of $1.5-3.

Personal advice? In the short term, it's better to wait and see. In the medium term, you can focus on layout opportunities before the halving in 2026. However, risk control must be done well; don't let a single position exceed 3% of the total funds, and set the stop-loss line below 1.5 dollars.

FIL is now like a giant ship under maintenance. Whether it can set sail again in 2026 depends on the ecological construction and market environment in the coming year. $FIL $ETH $BTC