Has the BTC four-year cycle really failed? On-chain data provides the answer.

Question

There is a lot of debate in the market about the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. Some say that the institutional era cycle is dead, while others say it is just evolving. Let's start by looking at the data.

The evidence of the cycle is still there

The four-year cycle of BTC corresponds to the halving of block rewards—2012 12.5BTC → 2016 6.25BTC → 2020 3.125BTC → 2024 will continue to halve. Each halving is a supply shock:

2012-2013: Rose from 12 dollars to 1200 dollars (100 times)
2016-2017: Rose from 400 dollars to 19000 dollars (50 times)
2020-2021: Rose from 3800 dollars to 68000 dollars (15 times)
2024-2025: From 15,500 USD to 126,000 USD (8 times)

The trend is clear: there is a bull market after each halving, but the increase is decreasing. The reason is straightforward—the market size has grown. When the market capitalization of BTC exceeds $1.5 trillion, the impact of a single supply change on the price naturally weakens.

The cycle is not dead, but is undergoing transformation

There are three key changes:

1. Institutional funds have changed the game rules

Before 2020, BTC was mainly speculated by retail investors. Now, institutions buy Bitcoin for asset allocation and to hedge against inflation, not to speculate on halving sentiment. This means that macro factors (Federal Reserve interest rates, dollar strength, geopolitical issues) have a greater impact on BTC prices than mere supply shocks.

2. The cycle length may be extended

The possibility of extending from 4 years to 6-8 years is very high. The market is self-adjusting, the consolidation period has lengthened, but this is not a failure of the cycle; it is just a change in the rhythm of the cycle.

3. Self-fulfilling expectations in the strengthening cycle

“Halving must rise” has become a consensus. Media, funds, and traders are creating topics and promoting capital inflow around the halving. Even if the fundamentals remain unchanged, the emotional aspect can drive a wave. This indicates that the cycle has evolved into a market cultural phenomenon.

Is it the end of the bull market or the beginning of the bear market?

From a technical perspective, there are several signals worth paying attention to:

The crash at the beginning of the year 1011 is crucial. BTC and altcoins have plummeted significantly, with this liquidation exceeding 20 billion USD, making it one of the most severe deleveraging events in crypto history. This is usually a signal of a cycle turning point.

Perspective of Wave Theory: BTC began a standard five-wave rise in 2023, with the first wave from 25K to 74K, the third wave from 59K to 110K, and the fifth wave from 74K to 126K. The fifth wave usually indicates that the upward cycle is nearing its end.

Key price points have become a battleground:

100K: Yearly level, tested multiple times, extremely high risk
84K: This is the real key - this is the breakout of the neckline during the five-wave launch, and it has not yet confirmed an effective pullback. The significance of 84K is greater than that of 100K, and it could be the dividing line for a rebound.
60K and 32K: Correspond to the third wave bottom and the fifth wave bottom respectively, which are important supports in the downtrend.

Based on the theory of equal cycles, if we benchmark the 69K high point of 2020 (which entered a bear market after reaching its peak), the 126K high point in 2024 may also mark the peak of this bull market. The subsequent bear market bottom might form between October-December 2026—this is the time node connecting the bear market bottom of 2018 and the bear market bottom of 2022.

There is one more variable

If the adoption of BTC at the global monetary policy, institutional, and national levels accelerates further, the cycle may be extended. Changing from four years to six years is not essentially a failure of the cycle, but rather a change in the time scale; the consensus still exists.

In this case, 84K has become a key turning point. If a large-level rebound occurs here, or even rebounds back to 100K, is there a possibility of “fake acting becoming real”—the rebound directly evolving into a new main uptrend, breaking the historical high again? It is possible, but it requires new catalysts to support it.

Final Thoughts

The four-year cycle of BTC is not dead; it is just adapting to a more complex market environment. Supply shocks are still important, but they are no longer the only driving force. Institutionalization, macro factors, and market psychology have become new variables.

The value of cycle theory lies in providing a framework, rather than definitive answers. Just engage when it comes, don't overthink it.

Disclaimer: For reference only, not investment advice