2025-12-01 05:21:15

Have you noticed? A major event is quietly changing the rules of the game.

Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve suddenly announced a pause in its balance sheet reduction. What calculations are hidden behind this abrupt halt of a "draining action" that reduced from 9 trillion to 6.6 trillion over more than three years?

In simple terms, it's just two words: emergency.

The economic data doesn't look good— the job market is weak, bank reserves are declining, and liquidity alerts have already sounded. Should we continue to withdraw? The financial system could face direct issues. What's worse is that the U.S. is currently burdened with 38 trillion in national debt, and interest expenses are quickly approaching the defense budget. Is it really the right time to be frantically selling treasury bonds? The government's financing costs are going to skyrocket.

So the Federal Reserve compromised. Control inflation? Put that aside for now. Stabilizing debt and the economy is the top priority.

But the problem arises: inflation is still stuck at a high level of 2.8%-3.0%. Will loosening now cause new issues? The independence of policy has long been hijacked by fiscal pressure, and now it is a dilemma.

The market response is very direct. Major cryptocurrencies in the crypto market dropped over 4% in one day, and US stocks also shook. Investors are conflicted: is this a signal of "easing benefits" or "policy out of control"?

To put it positively, the short-term liquidity pressure can ease a bit, and hot money won't be so tight. But what about the long term? The Federal Reserve's asset scale is still 2 trillion more than before the pandemic, inflation hasn't been suppressed, economic data is delayed in publication, and the path to interest rate cuts is still unclear. The chaotic flow of hot money could potentially create new bubbles, and no one can say for sure.

One thing is certain: the interest rate cut cycle for 2025-2026 is already on the way. The door to policy easing is slowly opening.

Instead of guessing the ups and downs, it's better to think clearly about how to hedge risks. When global monetary policy makes a major turn, those who survive never rely on luck, but on judgment of trends and steady operations.

This game has just begun, are your chips ready?

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MEVHunterZhang

· 12-04 02:26

The Fed's recent actions, to put it nicely, are a quick fix; to put it bluntly, it's admitting defeat. With $38 trillion in national debt weighing it down, it's getting to the point where they can hardly afford the interest.

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NFTFreezer

· 12-03 19:35

The Fed's recent moves really seem a bit desperate. They said they would tighten liquidity, but then suddenly changed their stance. Now I honestly don't know what to believe anymore.

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DAOdreamer

· 12-02 22:47

Once the Fed pauses, liquidity loosens, it seems we really have to take a gamble on the point shaving cycle.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 12-01 05:51

Once the Fed stops, the hot money can't sit still; now it's really a big show. To be honest, stopping the balance sheet reduction makes things even more anxious. After all, what's next? The pressure of 38 trillion in national debt is enormous, and inflation isn't resolved yet, but we need to loosen up; how is this logic so distorted? A Bear Market is nurturing; this wave of fluctuations is truly a test of mentality. Whoever can hold on will win. The interest rate cut cycle has come, but maybe it's not the right time; there might still be a chance in 2025.

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ContractFreelancer