#十二月行情展望 The 13 ministries jointly crack down on the crypto world, is a big dump coming?

Brothers, the big coin has crashed from over 90,000 dollars to 85,000. Do you think it was caused by the joint meeting of the 13 ministries to combat the news of virtual currency trading speculation?
Hehe, let me tell you: you're overthinking it. This conference at Dongda is just like pulling down your pants to fart, it's of no use at all. There have been many conferences with even more momentum than this one in the past, yet the coin prices rise and fall as they should.
The real culprit is that the Japanese devils have already flipped the table over there, and this group of dead devils quietly set off a nuclear bomb — their ten-year government bond yield has quietly soared to 1.1%! What does this concept mean?
Since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US, I've never seen such a high number! Many people don't understand what this damn number has to do with our coin trading. Let me give you a crude analogy:
Just imagine the Bank of Japan as the world's largest "zero-yen purchase" wholesale market. For the past decade or so, this market's boss (the Bank of Japan) has been losing money to do business, with borrowing interest rates nearly at zero. Those suit-wearing folks on Wall Street flocked over like flies to something smelly, frantically borrowing yen, this "cheap money," converting it into weapons, and then buying up everything around the world.
What to buy? Buy the beautiful national bonds, earn that 5% interest spread, as steady as an old dog; buy Nvidia's stocks, chase the AI bubble; of course, also buy some Bitcoin casually—after all, the money is borrowed for free, so losing it doesn't hurt, and earning is a big win. This operation is called "Yen Arbitrage Trading," essentially the largest and most enduring "making money without doing anything" game in the world. In our crypto world, to put it simply, it's just a corner party to ride on the popularity of this game.
Now, something big has happened: The owner of the "zero-cost purchase" wholesale market suddenly shouted with a loudspeaker: "I've changed the rules! From now on, if you borrow money, there will be some service fees!"
Why? Because inflation in Japan can't be controlled anymore, prices are rising rapidly,
The money that old men and women save in the bank is becoming more and more worthless.
The central bank can’t hold on any longer, and the market is betting that they will raise interest rates in December.
Now you've stirred up a hornet's nest. Just think about it:
First: The cost has increased, it used to be free to borrow, but now there are interest fees. The arbitrage profit has shrunk.
Second, everyone anticipates that the yen will appreciate. These institutions initially borrowed cheap yen (for example, 150 yen for 1 dollar), and now they have to repay the money, which means they need to buy back with more expensive yen (for example, 145 yen for 1 dollar). All in all, just the exchange rate can make them lose their pants.
Thirdly, what to do? Just run! Quickly sell all the assets that are making money and losing money, and exchange them for yen to pay off debts! As a result, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and coins... all the assets piled up with this "free leverage" were indiscriminately sold off! Coins, due to 24-hour trading and good liquidity, became the first to be sacrificed. This is not a technical breakdown; it marks the end of the global big dump era, and the pump is starting to hum!
At this time, there will definitely be some fools jumping out to say: "Don't be afraid! The beautiful Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates to save the market! I see the tools showing the probability is almost 90%!"
Bro, wake up! Do you really think I'm giving you urine to drink like it's Maotai?
Yes, the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, but that is at most just putting a band-aid on your scraped knee. Over here in Japan, they directly pull out the blood transfusion tube! Can the nature of the situation be the same?
Moreover, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the dollar interest decreases while the yen interest increases, the arbitrage space in between will be squeezed even faster! It will end up worse! It's like you are inflating a balloon with a hole in it - the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, while on the other side, a bigger hole is poked - Japan is raising interest rates. What good does it do?
So, don't focus on whether that old man Powell will be sidelined by Trump. The real life-and-death moment in December is on two dates:
One is on December 10, we will see whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and if they do, whether the market will react negatively after the "good news is fully priced in."
The other one is on December 19, when we will see whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates. That will be the moment that truly determines whether this casino, which relies on the free ride of the yen, will fall apart.
Today's big dump is just a joint rehearsal. In the days to come, I advise you to pay attention to two indicators: first, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. As long as the yen keeps rising, there will be no good news. Second, the yield of Japan's ten-year government bonds. As long as it keeps climbing, the whole world will tremble.
In front of these two giant macro meat grinders, what K-lines, what indicators, and what "iron bottom support" are all just paper-thin. Institutions are selling off assets to exchange for cash to survive, and you, a small retail investor, still want to catch falling knives?
Some people who share their trades might disagree and say: The bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish?
Hehe, big smart guy, a typhoon is coming now, better take your broken ship back to port and hide! Wait until the wind stops blowing in Tokyo, then we'll see what kind of show those people in Washington are putting on. Otherwise, the next one to be sacrificed could be your position.
In the short term, Bai Ge does not recommend everyone to rush to bottom-fish. Don't blindly buy at the bottom when it falls and chase after highs when it rises. 90% of the time in the trading market should be spent waiting for opportunities, rather than acting blindly. If you really want to dance on the knife's edge, you can talk to Bai Ge, after all, I have perfectly predicted the ups and downs five times recently. You can find my contact link pinned on my homepage. #加密市场回调 #ETH巨鲸增持 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC .