2025/12/02 $ETH The 4-hour level is in a clear downtrend, maintaining the approach of shorting on rallies as the main strategy, closely monitoring the price reactions at the two resistance levels of 2850-2860 and 2900.

Core analysis basis:
1. Price trends and structural damage:
In the early data period (November 24-28), ETH experienced a significant rise, increasing from about $2800 to nearly $3100.
The key turning point occurred on December 1 at 00:00 (line 193), where the price plummeted from $2991.26 to $2825.77, with a single 4-hour candlestick showing a massive drop (over 5.5%) and a sharp increase in trading volume (572M), marking the complete destruction of the upward trend.
After the sharp fall, the price rebounded weakly and continued to operate within the lower range of 2740-2850, forming a downward structure with lower highs and lower lows.
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) confirms trend reversal:
The fast line (ema_fast) has crossed below the slow line (ema_slow): Starting from line 193, the fast line (2981.57) is clearly below the slow line (2985.17), and the gap continues to widen (current line 199: fast line 2861.84 < slow line 2914.36), which is a typical bearish arrangement signal.
3. MACD indicator strengthens fall signal:
The DIF line has crossed below the zero axis and has fallen sharply: the MACD_DIF turned negative (-3.60) at line 193 and is currently plummeting to -52.52, indicating that the downward momentum is very strong.
The MACD histogram continues to be negative: and the magnitude of the negative value is expanding (currently -24.45), indicating that the bearish strength is dominating absolutely and there are no signs of exhaustion.
4. Momentum and Oversold Indicators (RSI & StochRSI):
The RSI is in a weak zone: the current RSI is 35.71, having escaped the oversold area (<30) but still below the 50 midline, indicating that the overall market is in a weak position.
StochRSI is at a very low position: StochRSI_K is 20.94, StochRSI_D is 11.16. Although there has been a slight rebound from the oversold area, it is still far below 50, indicating that short-term momentum is extremely weak, and any rebound may be feeble.
5. Volume Analysis:
The fall accompanied by massive volume: The crash at 00:00 on December 1 was accompanied by an unprecedented trading volume within the data period (572M), which is a strong signal of capital outflow.
Low volume rebound: The subsequent small rebounds (such as in line 198) have relatively low trading volume, indicating insufficient buying interest, making it difficult for the rebound to be sustained.
key price level
Upper resistance level (must break through to relieve the falling pressure):
1. Recent rebound high resistance: $2850 $2860 (corresponding to the high point area of lines 194-195). This is the first effective resistance area after the fall.
2. Key psychological and structural resistance: $2900. This is the lower edge of the previous fluctuation platform and an integer level.
3. Strong resistance/Bull-Bear watershed: 2980 3000 USD. This is the strong resistance zone formed after the previous upward support was broken, and it is also the area where the EMA slow line is currently located. Only by reclaiming this area can the downtrend possibly be reversed.
Support level below:
1. Recent low point support: 2740 2750 USD (the low point area of lines 196-197). If it falls below, it will open up further downward space.
2. Important psychological support: 2700 USD. Round number.
3. Lower support: $2650 $2680 (possible support area inferred from previous trends).
Conclusion and Summary
ETHUSDT is currently in a clear downtrend. After experiencing a round of price increase, the market has seen a significant drop at a key position, with technical indicators fully turning to shorting. Any current price increase can only be temporarily defined as a "bounce within a downtrend," rather than a trend reversal.
The strategy should primarily focus on shorting at highs, closely monitoring the price reactions at the two resistance levels of 2850-2860 and 2900. Unless the price can significantly break above the 2980-3000 area with strong volume, the downward trend remains unchanged. Attention should also be paid to the defense of the support zone around 2740-2750.
Risk Warning: As the StochRSI is at an extremely low position, one should be wary of a short-term technical rebound in the market. However, if the rebound lacks volume and cannot break through the aforementioned resistance, it presents a good shorting opportunity. #十二月行情展望 #比特币行情观察