Many people are drawing comparisons to early 2022, when bitcoin broke below the 50 week moving average.

There are many reasons why this is not good analysis. This is the typical over simplification found on twitter.

Firstly, until recently price did not really interact so well with this moving average. There are better moving averages to use, that have acted as support / resistance more frequently throughout bitcoins history, and continue to do so.

Secondly, let's not forget these over simpilfications shift - once one is wrong, then the next one is brought along to fit a bearish bias.

Sure the bulls can do the same... and many will say "this time is not different", but it is all about probabilities. Going along with this one data point, would mean ignoring 100s of bullish data points. I am not exaggerating when I say 100s.

Has everyone forgotten about how the fractal was overlaid in April? These types of fractals pointing to 10k have been shared on twitter constantly since the late 2022 lows.

Ofcourse people can go along with being conservative, and waiting for bullish signs to be more obvious. But at that point, you are giving up the meat of the move, and might as well be in less volatile/risky assets.

Anyone who has been in bitcoin long enough knows it is strongly tied to emotions and creating max pain. You know which side I think that is on, and now time will tell soon enough.