Ethereum Unstable Cycle: Why 2025 Will Not Happen as Expected

Ethereum is entering the end of the year under increasing pressure, and the price movements are diverging more and more from what traders typically expect at this stage of the four-year cycle. Instead of accelerating toward a new all-time high, ETH continues to stall below an important resistance level, raising questions about whether this cycle is unfolding differently.

Why Is Setting a New Record Becoming Difficult? From a technical perspective, Ethereum remains suppressed below a long-standing resistance zone, which has repeatedly rejected prices in various cycles. The weekly chart shows a familiar pattern: sharp rallies followed by similarly strong corrections, with buyers struggling to maintain momentum as ETH approaches the upper resistance zone.

According to Ali, this structure does not support the idea of a breakout happening soon toward a new high, especially before February.

Instead of steady growth, Ethereum seems to be stuck in a broad accumulation range. Every attempt to break higher faces supply pressure, pushing the price back to the mid-range support. Until ETH can decisively break through this zone, the market remains in a neutral structural state rather than outright optimistic.

The Worst Year in Ethereum’s History. Crypto Rover’s data provides additional important context for this technical hesitation. Historically, Ethereum is currently experiencing its second-worst annual performance in history. This is in stark contrast to previous cycles, where this period usually yielded the most substantial gains for ETH.

Monthly profit data show inconsistent growth throughout the year, with rapid price increases followed by sharp declines. Instead of building momentum, ETH spent most of 2025 correcting previous gains. This behavior indicates capital rotation, liquidity conditions, and broader market forces limiting growth rather than signaling clear asset weakness.

What Are the Charts Indicating Now? The chart structure shows that the market is still searching for direction. Key horizontal support and resistance levels continue to serve as pivot points, with buyers protecting lower support levels while sellers dominate near the resistance.

This narrowing often signals a larger volatility event, but the direction has yet to be determined. Until trading volume increases and the price breaks out of this range, Ethereum is likely to remain volatile and frustrating for both bulls and bears.

Importantly, previous cycles show that prolonged accumulation does not eliminate long-term growth potential. Instead, it often merely delays it. The lack of an immediate peak is not a sign of failure, but it does pose a challenge to timing assumptions.

Important Lessons for ETH Traders Ethereum’s current structure reflects a slower, heavier, and much more competitive cycle than initially anticipated. The resistance structure remains intact, annual performance is below the historical average, and momentum has yet to convincingly re-establish itself. However, such compression phases rarely last forever.

Currently, charts suggest patience rather than prediction. Ethereum is not experiencing a sharp decline, but it is also not ready to break out. When that balance ultimately shifts, the move could be significant.