A certain move pushed interest rates to the highest in 30 years, but it's not about rate hikes; it's about shifting the entire global leverage root.

Market sentiment is now very delicate.
On one side, people say:
"Japan's rate hike has been priced in, and the impact is minimal."
On the other side, the Bank of Japan is quietly signaling:
0.75% is not the end, 1% might not even be a neutral rate.
You need to understand one thing:
The truly dangerous macro events are never about the "first move," but about the "confirmation of direction."
And this time, Japan is sending a very clear signal—
👉 The 30-year ultra-loose era is officially over.
1. This rate hike in Japan is completely different from what you think of as a "symbolic rate hike."
Let's clarify the facts:
Overnight rate: raised to 0.75%
Benchmark rate: highest since 1995
Policy Committee: expected to pass unanimously
OIS implied probability: 95%
This is no longer "testing"; it's a consensus-level action.
More importantly, there's a key statement:
The Bank of Japan internally believes: 0.75% still hasn't reached the neutral rate, and 1% might be too low.
In plain language, this means:
👉 We're not just making one hike; we're starting down a new path.
2. Japan's real concern isn't inflation; it's the positive cycle of "wages—inflation—policy."
Many still cling to old beliefs:
"Japan has no inflation, so there's no need to hike rates."
But the reality is:
Japan's wage growth has exceeded expectations for consecutive periods
Core inflation is showing clear stickiness
Companies are proactively raising prices rather than passively increasing costs
Inflation expectations are becoming endogenous
What does this mean?
It means the fear of the Bank of Japan is beginning to materialize:
👉 Deflationary mindset is starting to break down.
Once wages and prices form a positive feedback loop,
the central bank must regain control from "extreme easing."
3. The real threat isn't in Japan, but in "yen carry trades."
You need to grasp a core point:
Japan isn't an isolated economy; it's the source of global leverage.
What has happened globally over the past 20+ years?
Borrow yen
Exchange for dollars
Buy US stocks, US bonds, BTC, and all risk assets
This is called:
👉 Yen carry trade (Carry Trade)
And now, what is Japan doing?
Interest rates rising
Exchange rate stability expectations increasing
Future path leaning hawkish
This will directly lead to one thing:
The safety margin of carry trades is shrinking.
Once the yen begins a sustained appreciation,
What will you see?
Risk assets forced to deleverage
Foreign capital flowing back into the home currency
Systemic increase in volatility
This isn't an emotional issue; it's a capital structure issue.
4. Why might the phrase "market has already priced in" be wrong?
Many now say:
"25 basis points hike was already expected."
But the problem is:
The market is pricing in a single rate hike,
But the central bank is signaling a path.
The market is pricing in short-term shocks,
But the real impact is a medium-term re-evaluation of funding costs.
Especially this statement:
"Even if it rises to 0.75%, it still hasn't reached the neutral rate."
This is essentially telling you:
👉 Don't rush; this is just the beginning.
5. What does this mean for risk assets? One sentence: it's no longer a "liquidity tailwind."
Look at recent phenomena together:
BTC / US stocks rebound, but volume is insufficient
Altcoins recover quickly, but lack sustainability
Every positive development requires a bigger narrative to support it
The market is repeatedly emphasizing "already priced in"
This is a very dangerous phase in trading:
👉 When bad news needs to be repeatedly explained as "no impact," it indicates the market is holding on desperately.
6. The real issue with the Bank of Japan's recent meeting isn't "whether to hike," but "how to say it."
Pay attention to timing:
Policy statement: around noon
Ueda and men’s press conference: 15:30
The real volatility may come from the wording in the press conference:
If they emphasize "still accommodative"
If they refuse to give a clear upper limit
If they downplay fiscal pressures and emphasize inflation path
Then there is only one message for the market:
The direction has been confirmed.
Finally, a clear anchor point:
A hidden premise for global risk assets over the past decade has been "Japan will always stay loose."
Once this premise is dismantled, all valuations need to be recalculated.
This isn't just a matter of one meeting,
It's a matter of an era.
💬
Do you think this rate hike in Japan is more like "ending risks,"
or "gradually revealing risks"?$BTC