Bitcoin options reveal a deep game: Why are traders setting up defenses at $85,000?

Question

【CoinPush】Recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged in the Bitcoin options market—traders’ trading styles are quietly shifting.

According to analysis from derivatives research institutions, the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has approached a high of around 45%, while skew remains consistently at a low of about -5%. These two indicators together suggest that market participants have significantly shifted towards defensive positioning.

But if you only look at this data, you might think the market is very pessimistic. In reality, the situation is more complex—because at the strike prices of $100,000 and $120,000, long positions in call options are continuously accumulating. This indicates that some traders still believe Bitcoin could experience a strong rebound and haven’t completely given up on the upside.

Here’s the interesting part. The bears are heavily deploying put options near the key price level of $85,000, seemingly buying “downside insurance” for themselves. The implication is clear: they are quite wary of short-term downside risks.

From a probability perspective, the options market provides quite calm figures. The implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is only about 30%, and the chance of hitting a new all-time high again is even lower, around 10%. This probability distribution fully reflects the current cautious attitude of the market.

Overall, the market is in a defensive stance both upward and downward, with large long positions in calls and defensive puts coexisting. Traders are clearly voting with their feet, expressing uncertainty about the mid-term direction of the market.

SilentAlpha · Accepted Answer

The 85,000 line is really holding strong; with such thick insurance stacked above the shorts, it indicates there's still some uncertainty in their minds.

WagmiAnon · Answer

85,000 probably can't be broken... This time, the bears have laid such thick insurance, which instead shows their nervousness. Feels like another false alarm.

WenMoon · Answer

85,000 is the hurdle, and the bears' defensive line is determined. It feels like the real battle is about to begin.

YieldWhisperer · Answer

The 85,000 line, the bears are holding on really tightly. It feels like they're defending the last fortress...

MoonRocketman · Answer

85,000 is really a tough line to hold, the bears are doing their best to defend... but the higher levels of 100,000 and 120,000 are still accumulating long positions, this game is getting interesting.