The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year is high: a 73.4% chance of holding steady in January, with expectations for rate cuts diverging in March

【ChainNews】Before the latest CPI release, new data emerged on the market’s focus on the Federal Reserve’s moves. According to the latest forecast from CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the January decision is only 26.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady reaches 73.4% — in other words, a high likelihood that they will continue to hold steady.

However, by March, the situation begins to diverge. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 45.8%, while the chance of maintaining rates unchanged drops to 43.2%, making the two nearly evenly matched. Additionally, there is a 10.9% chance that the market assigns to a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut — although this probability is relatively small, it also reflects market expectations for easing policies.

These figures reflect market divergence and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. For macroeconomic-focused crypto investors, the Fed’s interest rate policy direction often directly impacts the attractiveness of risk assets and market liquidity, making it essential to monitor closely.