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Why is Bitcoin underperforming the market? Large investors selling and macro expectations are key.
[Chain News] Bitcoin's recent performance has indeed been lackluster, especially compared to other risk assets. Data shows that the main issue lies with Large Investors—they have been continuously dumping. Two signals best illustrate the problem.
Interestingly, capital has now shifted towards safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Gold prices have surged above the 200-day moving average by 25%, while silver is even more exaggerated, up by 45%, almost approaching the historical peak during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The tech stocks driven by the AI boom are still continuing, with the S&P 500 just 1% away from its historical high, and the Nasdaq only 3% below its historical peak.
But what about Bitcoin? There is still a gap of about 30% from its historical high, which is no small difference. Interestingly, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been gradually weakening since August, while the correlation with gold turned negative starting in July. This indicates that Bitcoin's positioning in asset allocation is undergoing a change.
The key turning point may be in the PCE data released from July to September 2025. If this data performs relatively moderately, the market may readjust its expectations for Federal Reserve policy, believing that the easing cycle is about to arrive. Once this expectation is formed, Bitcoin may welcome new upward momentum.