#通胀与经济增长 Noted the analysis by Timiraos, and the core logic is very clear— the rate cut window before 2026 has been severely narrowed. The feasibility ranking of the three paths is worth breaking down:

**Evidence of inflation slowdown** is currently the most lacking. Although CPI has eased, sticky inflation remains, and the Federal Reserve needs to see more sustained data, which means we have to wait at least a bit longer.

**Deterioration of the labor market** sounds easy to happen, but this is the least desired outcome by the Trump administration. Economic weakness may lead to rate cuts, but the cost is rising unemployment, which is a political liability they prefer to avoid.

**Federal Reserve personnel changes** are the biggest variable. Trump has already been testing the boundaries of the system—like Timiraos's analogy, this is not a one-time challenge but a continuous stress test. How long the moat can hold is really uncertain.

The impact on on-chain funds is that this uncertainty will prolong. In the short term, Fed policy is unlikely to give clear guidance, and the market may fluctuate between inflation data, employment data, and political developments. In this environment, large capital flows will be more cautious, and whale movements are more likely to reflect risk avoidance rather than allocation.

It’s worth closely monitoring next month’s CPI and non-farm payroll data.