#美联储降息预期 The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and restarts QE, seemingly full of positive signals, but on-chain data tells a different story.

I just looked at the options market buildup—by the end of December, over 50% of positions are concentrated at the round numbers of BTC 100,000 and ETH 3,200, with implied volatility declining throughout the month. This indicates that market expectations for future volatility are gradually decreasing. In other words, although the policy signals are dovish, traders are not buying into it.

A more intuitive issue is liquidity. With Christmas and year-end settlement approaching, this period has historically been the quietest time in the crypto market. The previous correction from 100,000 to 80,000, although showing signs of recovery in the past 14 days and the 200-day moving average slope turning positive, is based on extremely low liquidity, making its reference significance limited.

The current assessment is: the market has fully priced in the rate cut expectations, but the momentum for a bull market restart is indeed limited. The probability of a slow decline before the end of the year is higher, but one should also beware of a sudden reversal of positive news—risks and opportunities are both present, and the key is to wait for liquidity to truly recover before making judgments.