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#ETHTrendWatch

The price dynamics of Ethereum depend on technological upgrades, changes in staking, and regulatory factors.

1. **Upcoming updates** – scaling Fusaka ( December 2025) can significantly increase the usage of Layer 2.

2. **Risks of Staking Centralization** – a reduction in emissions may complicate life for individual stakers, giving an advantage to institutional players.

3. **Outflow of funds from ETFs** – ongoing withdrawals by institutional investors create short-term pressure on the price.

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analysis

### 1. Protocol updates: Fusaka and Hegota (mixed effect)

**Overview:** The Fusaka update, scheduled for December 3, 2025, will increase block capacity from 6 to 48 blob objects, which will reduce Layer 2 fees by approximately 95%. However, the delay in implementing EVM Object Format (EOF) and reliance on PeerDAS for data sampling pose implementation risks. The Hegota update, expected in mid-2026, will focus on using Verkle trees to facilitate the operation of stateless clients, but technical complexity may hinder its implementation.

**What it means:** Successful scaling will attract demand from DeFi and corporate users (positive factor), but delays or mistakes could undermine trust in Ethereum's roadmap.

### 2. Centralization of staking (negative risk)

**Overview:** After the merge (Merge), individual stakers, making up 2.7% of validators, are facing profitability issues. Studies show a 22.4% decrease in locked ETH with a reduction in issuance, while the share of individual stakers has halved. Liquid staking tokens (Lido, Rocket Pool) now control 54% of the total staking volume.

**What it means:** Centralization risks can undermine Ethereum's image as a decentralized network, which may deter long-term investors. A decrease in activity among individual participants can also slow down innovation in the network.

### 3. Regulatory Pressure and ETF (short-term negative)

**Overview:** In the US, spot ETH ETFs saw an inflow of $84.6 million on December 24, but there has been a net outflow of funds since November. The SEC's attention to staking as a potential security and delays in the approval of new products are diminishing interest from institutional investors.

**What it means:** Regulatory uncertainty keeps large investors at bay. Clarification of the situation in 2026 may resume the influx of funds, but for the near term, liquidity will remain constrained.

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## Conclusion

The forecast for Ethereum in 2026 balances between breakthroughs in scaling and the risks of staking centralization and regulatory hurdles. A reduction in fees thanks to Fusaka could stimulate the growth of Layer 2, but the ongoing outflow of funds from ETFs and the decrease in the number of individual stakers create negative factors. **Particular attention should be paid to the launch of the Fusaka testnet and the SEC's position on staking in the first quarter of 2026 — will they change their stance on staking as a "security" and pave the way for institutional participation?**