The Federal Reserve's policy shift has sparked market optimism, with both Bitcoin and US stocks rebounding. Under the shadow of the second oil crisis, oil prices continue to remain under pressure.

Policy Warm Winds Blow Through, Market Reactions Are Enthusiastic

This week, the market experienced a key turning point. The New York Fed President Williams sent dovish signals to the public, hinting at a rate cut in December; Vice Chair Jefferson began to dispel market concerns about an AI bubble, emphasizing that current AI companies are fundamentally different from the internet bubble era, with genuine profitability and reasonable financing structures. These officials’ statements eliminated previous market uncertainties about a shift in monetary policy.

Traders responded immediately, with the probability of rate cuts rising from conservative levels to over 50%, and the VIX fear index dropped 11.32%. This emotional recovery was directly reflected in asset prices: Bitcoin recovered most of its intraday losses and is currently hovering around $87,670; Ethereum, under technical pressure, fell back to the $2,950 range.

Policy Bets in a Data Vacuum

Interestingly, this rebound occurred precisely during a period of missing key economic data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of October CPI release, and both November CPI and non-farm employment data are scheduled to be released after the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. The lack of hard data constraints allows market expectations on policy to run freely.

However, consumer signals show frustration. The latest University of Michigan survey indicates that the November consumer sentiment index fell to 51, a historic low, with the current conditions index dropping to 51.1. Concerns about persistent high prices and shrinking wages are increasing, and personal unemployment expectations have risen to their highest since July 2020. Notably, although consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year have fallen for the third consecutive month to 4.5%, long-term inflation expectations (5-10 years) remain at 3.4%, above healthy levels.

US Stocks Rise Across the Board, Crypto Funds Face Pressure

The Fed’s policy shift stimulated a broad rally in stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.98% and 0.88%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.98%. Among tech stocks, Google surged over 3%, Apple gained more than 1.9%; but Nvidia, which was down 4.3% intraday, closed down 1%, reflecting cautious attitudes toward high-valued tech giants.

In contrast to stock market optimism, crypto funds are facing large-scale redemptions. Bank of America cited EPFR Global data showing that in the week ending November 19, crypto funds experienced outflows of $2.2 billion, the largest redemption on record. This phenomenon reflects institutional investors’ reallocation among risk assets.

Second Oil Crisis Concerns Behind Three Consecutive Oil Price Declines

The commodities market appears fragile. WTI crude oil declined for the third consecutive day, falling to $57.9 per barrel, down 1.33%. This decline reflects multiple pressures: weak global economic growth expectations, sluggish Chinese demand, and long-term trends toward renewable energy substitution. Some analysts compare the current energy market turmoil to certain features of a second oil crisis—though causes differ, supply-demand imbalances and price volatility are testing the resilience of the global economy.

Gold seeks refuge amid uncertainty, consolidating around $4,064 per ounce, down slightly by 0.29%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 4.06%, indicating market expectations of further declines in long-term interest rates.

Global Central Bank and Government Policy Movements

The Bank of Japan’s policy board signaled a potential rate hike, stating that the central bank is “close” to a decision to raise interest rates, and there is no need to wait until next spring’s wage negotiations. The current policy rate is 0.5%, well below the neutral level. Meanwhile, Japan’s Cabinet approved a stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, aimed at price subsidies and key investments, with plans to obtain parliamentary approval by year-end. Economists question the effectiveness of this stimulus, warning that increasing demand in an inflationary environment could further push prices higher.

Corporate Actions

Nvidia’s H200 AI chip export ban to China may be loosened. Reuters reports that the Trump administration is reviewing the ban, and easing tensions between China and the U.S. could increase the likelihood of high-end technology exports. If implemented, this would reshape the global AI chip supply landscape.

AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion investment to expand its Maryland manufacturing base, expected to create 2,600 jobs. Google launched a new AI tool, BigQuery, integrating machine learning and generative AI capabilities to improve data processing and intelligent agent operation efficiency.

Market Summary

Currently, the market is caught between policy optimism and economic data pessimism. The dovish statements from Fed officials temporarily suppressed downside risks for risk assets, but phenomena like record-low consumer confidence and large-scale crypto fund redemptions suggest that the market’s true assessment of the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Oil prices continue to decline amid concerns of a second oil crisis, reflecting structural adjustments in the global energy market. The absence of key U.S. economic data next week will prolong this uncertainty.