Market Structure Update: US Stocks vs. Crypto

Looking at last night's US stock performance, the daily chart continues to trend slightly upward, forming a V-shaped recovery structure, which aligns with my previous judgment.
However, when reviewing BTC's weekly daily chart, it is clearly sideways and does not follow the US stock rebound. There is already a divergence where prices are falling but not rising, indicating that the current market momentum for upward movement is weakening.

This point is crucial. If US stocks pull back in the coming days, the crypto market could accelerate downward. Therefore, in the short term, the trend of US stocks remains a key external variable to watch. Also, a reminder that US markets are closed tonight for Christmas, which will further reduce liquidity.

Funds and Sentiment

From the liquidation map, the distribution of longs and shorts for BTC / ETH / SOL is relatively balanced, but the density is average, indicating that the market does not have a clear consensus expectation and is mostly in a wait-and-see mode.

Regarding ETF spot funds:
BTC net outflow of approximately $67 million
ETH net outflow of approximately $30.5 million
SOL slight net inflow of about $400,000
Considering the holiday factor, institutional trading volume is generally low and mainly net outflows, showing no active desire to go long.

Short-term Market Outlook

Without any unexpected positive news or black swan events, I lean towards the market maintaining a calm, low-volatility sideways oscillation.
Continuing to move sideways until the end of the month would be a relatively “healthy” state. As for whether a sudden reversal will occur, I don’t speculate—just monitor structural changes.

Today’s Contract Trading Strategy

BTC
Short position: around 88,500 or enter on rallies
Add to position: 90,000
Partial take profit: 87,000

Long position: around 86,500 or enter on dips
Add to position: 85,000
Partial take profit: 88,500

ETH
Short position: around 2950-2,980 or enter on rallies
Add to position: 3,080
Partial take profit: 2,930
Long position: around 2870-2,900 or enter on dips
Add to position: 2,800
Partial take profit: 2,860

SOL Short: around 124 or enter on rallies
Add to position: 127
Partial take profit: 120