When will gold prices drop in 2568-2569? In-depth analysis after surpassing $4,000

Many people are asking whether gold will decline in the future. After seeing the price surge to an all-time high of $4,181 per ounce on October 20, 2023, many investors are beginning to feel anxious. But if you are to decide whether to buy or sell, you need to understand how leading global financial institutions view this situation.

Gold Market Overview 2023: An Unprecedented Phenomenon

Since the beginning of 2023, gold prices have experienced an astonishing upward trend, increasing by 66% in just 7 months. This indicates strong demand driven by multiple factors.

In Thailand, the 96.5% gold bar price moved in the same direction, surpassing 62,000 THB, exceeding the original target set by analysts at 55,000 THB.

From the Perspective of Major Global Banks: A “Still Going” Outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2024 (up from the previous target of $4,300). The main reasons are continuous inflows from central banks and ETF gold fund purchases.

For 2023, Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas adjusted the target to $3,300, reflecting stronger-than-expected central bank buying.

UBS shares the same view, forecasting that prices will reach $3,500 by December 2023. One of the key factors is the unprecedented accumulation of gold by central banks, as pointed out by Joni Teves from this bank.

Based on calculations converting to Thai gold prices, if international gold hits $4,900, gold prices in Thailand could reach 75,000-80,000 THB by 2024.

Four Reasons Driving Gold’s Value Increase

1. Trade Tensions: President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, effective in November. This uncertainty has led investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset.

2. Central Bank Monetary Policies: The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates (by 0.25% in September 2023), weakening the dollar and increasing gold’s attractiveness in other currencies.

3. Central Bank Purchases: Emerging market countries have bought over 1,000 tons of net gold annually for three consecutive years to reduce dependence on the US dollar and diversify risk.

4. BRICS Digital Currency Plans: The BRICS group is planning to create a gold-backed digital currency for use as an exchange rate among member countries, challenging the US dollar’s dominance.

When Will Gold Decline: Warning Signs to Watch

Although the trend remains bullish, certain situations could cause gold prices to reverse:

• Successful US-China Tariff Negotiations: If tensions ease, demand for “safe assets” will decrease.
• Profit-taking Pressure: After a sustained rise, investors may start selling to realize profits.
• Strong US Dollar: If the US economy remains robust and the Fed delays rate cuts.
• High Interest Rates: If inflation persists and the Fed maintains high rates.

How to Time Gold Trading in This Environment

###Strategy 1: Buy on Pullbacks (Dip Buying) Gold is in a strong uptrend but has risen too quickly, so short-term corrections may occur. You can wait for the price to reach key support levels, such as $3,859 (at the start of the month) or $3,782, then buy and set a target at new highs.

###Strategy 2: Buy on Breakout Retest (Breakout Retest) When gold price breaks above $4,000, this resistance may turn into support. Wait for the price to retest the 3,980–4,000 range. If the price bounces back with increased volume, it’s a good opportunity to buy.

###Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci Levels Draw Fibonacci retracement from the previous low (say $3,500) to the recent high ($4,059). The 38.2% and 61.8% levels are good entry points. When the price approaches these levels and shows a bounce signal, consider buying.

Summary: When Will Gold Drop?

According to analyses from leading financial institutions, gold prices are likely to continue rising until the end of 2024. However, there will be no straight upward movement; there will be pullbacks to rest and consolidate. The answer to “When will gold decline?” is that it will do so periodically, not in a continuous slide.

Investors buying or planning to buy gold should remain flexible, wait for dips to increase holdings, and not be surprised by daily price fluctuations. The main trend still indicates that gold has the potential to go higher over the next 1-2 years.