XRP Today News: ETF Draws $1.13 Billion, XRP Drops for Four Consecutive Days, Can the Bull Market Restart in 2026?

Recently, XRP price movement has fallen into technical weakness, recording a fourth consecutive trading day decline on December 24, closing near $1.86, a significant retracement from the July all-time high of $3.66. In stark contrast to the price weakness, its spot ETF has demonstrated remarkable institutional absorption capacity, achieving 28 consecutive days of net capital inflows since listing in November, with a total scale of $1.13 billion. This divergence of “price falling, funds flowing in” reveals a deep contradiction between short-term profit-taking pressure and medium- to long-term structural optimism. Looking ahead to 2026, the advancement of crypto-friendly regulatory bills, the potential Fed rate cut cycle, and the deepening utility of XRP in cross-border payments together form a positive narrative for its price recovery.

Price Dilemma: Dual Challenges of Technical Indicators Under Pressure and On-Chain Activity Decline

Currently, XRP faces a dual test from technical charts and on-chain fundamentals. From a technical analysis perspective, XRP’s price has been consistently below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), a widely observed medium- to long-term bearish signal. The 50-day EMA is currently around $2.10, while the 200-day EMA is near $2.39, forming a strong resistance zone above. Technical analysts point out that the price needs to effectively break through and stabilize above the $2 psychological threshold to challenge these moving averages and reverse the recent downtrend. Otherwise, the market may test support levels around $1.75 or even $1.50.

Simultaneously, network activity has significantly cooled down. According to on-chain data platform XRPScan, the number of active accounts (unique senders) on the XRP network fluctuated in the first half of 2025, then rebounded temporarily to 49,001 on July 18 with a price spike, but has since declined sharply, recently falling below 20,000. This contraction in activity is usually related to two factors: first, early investors and “whales” taking profits after reaching all-time highs, dispersing holdings from strong hands into the market; second, a cautious market sentiment with fewer new entrants and declining trading frequency.

This on-chain activity slowdown is not isolated; it coincides with a series of macro and regulatory uncertainties. For example, delays in approval of the XRP spot ETF in late July, the brief government shutdown in early October, and MSCI’s release of consultation documents on digital asset treasuries have all, to varying degrees, shaken market confidence, causing prices to break below key supports. This reflects that, in the absence of sustained positive catalysts, XRP’s price is highly sensitive to negative news, and investor sentiment can quickly shift from optimism to caution.

The Truth About Capital Inflows: The “Honeymoon Period” of ETFs and Deep Analysis of Institutional Demand

However, in stark contrast to the weak price and subdued on-chain data, institutional funds have been pouring in through ETF channels. Since its listing on November 13, the US spot XRP ETF has set a perfect record of 28 consecutive days of net capital inflows, attracting a total of $1.13 billion, with no single day of net outflow. This performance is extraordinary in the early listing history of all crypto ETFs. It prompts the question: who is buying, and why are they steadfastly accumulating during a price decline?

Key Data on XRP Spot ETF Capital Flows

The following data clearly shows the strong performance of XRP ETF since its launch, contrasted with market prices:

Cumulative net inflow (since listing): $1.13 billion

Number of consecutive net inflow trading days: 28 days

Current price (December 24): $1.86

Retracement from all-time high ($3.66): about 49%

S&P 500 performance during the same period: roughly flat to slight increase

Some market views suggest this may be a typical “honeymoon effect” for new ETF products. Early after launch, inclusion in indices, initial allocations, and attention tend to bring steady capital inflows. But whether this flow can continue depends on the asset’s fundamentals and subsequent narratives. A more convincing interpretation is that this reflects a “left-side positioning” strategy by institutional investors. For many regulated institutions, once regulatory uncertainties (such as SEC settlement) are resolved, XRP becomes a clear, non-security crypto asset with configurable features. The current price correction is seen as a better valuation window to establish long-term positions.

The core logic behind institutional demand is “certainty.” Unlike many other crypto projects still battling regulators, XRP’s legal status has become relatively clear. This regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for traditional financial institutions to allocate large-scale assets. Therefore, ETF capital inflows can be viewed as a “vote” for a compliant, well-defined asset with real-world use cases (like RippleNet cross-border payments). Even if short-term prices are suppressed by market sentiment and macro factors, the long-term allocation rationale remains unchanged.

Outlook for 2026: Multiple Catalysts Converge, Can the Bullish Narrative Materialize?

Looking beyond current consolidation, several potential major catalysts are brewing for 2026, which could jointly lay the foundation for a new XRP bull market. First and foremost is clarification of regulatory policies. The US House of Representatives submitted the “Market Structure Bill” to the Senate in July, expected to be reviewed and marked up in Q1 2026. If ultimately passed, it would provide a clear federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, ending the chaotic era of regulation by enforcement, which would be a huge boon for the industry and assets like XRP that have resolved litigation issues.

Second, monetary policy may shift toward easing. Despite recent data showing sticky inflation, delaying expectations of Fed rate cuts, signs of slowing economic growth and a weakening labor market are accumulating. Analysts from Kobeissi Letter note that the number of full-time jobs has fallen to the lowest since December 2021, a trend often associated with recession. Once inflation data shows clear and sustained cooling, a rate cut by the Fed could become possible, typically increasing dollar liquidity and supporting risk assets including XRP.

Third, XRP’s ecosystem and utility development will continue to advance. Ripple has been actively expanding RippleNet adoption with global financial institutions to improve cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs. Additionally, more XRP spot ETF products may be approved in 2026, providing investors with more options and further opening institutional capital channels. These fundamental improvements are the bedrock for medium- to long-term price targets. Many analysts believe that in an optimistic scenario, XRP could challenge previous highs in 2026, even reaching the $3.0 to $3.66 range.

Of course, the outlook is not without obstacles. Downside risks are also evident: if the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises its neutral interest rate significantly, it could trigger yen carry trades unwinding, impacting global liquidity; if US economic data remains strong, delaying Fed rate cuts, market sentiment could be suppressed; additionally, if the US crypto regulation bill stalls in the Senate or XRP ETF experiences its first net outflow, it could trigger a deeper correction.

Deep Dive into XRP: What Is It and Why Is It Different?

Amidst market volatility, understanding XRP and the core value proposition of Ripple is crucial. What is XRP? Simply put, XRP is the native digital currency of the open-source, decentralized blockchain network XRP Ledger (XRPL). Unlike Bitcoin’s “digital gold” or Ethereum’s “world computer” narrative, XRP’s design is highly focused on efficient cross-border value transfer. Its consensus mechanism (RPCA) requires no mining, with transaction confirmation in 3-5 seconds and extremely low fees, making it theoretically well-suited for financial institutions to perform large-scale, real-time cross-border settlements.

Ripple is the main driver of the XRP ecosystem. It does not control XRP Ledger but holds a large amount of XRP and develops commercial solutions based on the technology, most notably RippleNet. This is a global payment network enabling banks and payment providers to conduct fast, low-cost cross-border transactions. XRP can serve as a “bridge currency” within RippleNet, helping to solve the inefficiencies and high liquidity costs associated with traditional cross-border payments that rely on nostro/vostro accounts.

The tokenomics of XRP is also distinctive. Its total supply is 100 billion tokens, all created at genesis, with no subsequent mining or issuance. A significant portion is held by Ripple and released periodically according to a transparent schedule. This model reduces inflation uncertainty but also raises concerns about sell pressure from Ripple. In recent years, Ripple has managed market expectations through escrow wallets and transparent release plans. The project’s long-term roadmap focuses on enhancing XRPL’s performance, introducing new features (like native lending, automated market makers), and deepening its application in compliant financial sectors.

Market Strategy Tips: How to Find Opportunities Amid Contradictory Signals?

Faced with bearish technicals but bullish fundamentals, how should investors respond? It depends on your investment horizon and risk appetite. For short-term traders, the current market is clearly dominated by bears. Prices are below key moving averages, and no clear bottom reversal signals have appeared. Cautious approaches include monitoring the support around $1.75. If this support holds and is accompanied by increased volume breaking above $2.0 and the 50-day EMA, it could signal a short-term shift to strength, with targets around $2.10–$2.40. Conversely, if it breaks below $1.75, the next support at $1.50 may be tested.

For medium- to long-term investors, this consolidation could be a “golden opportunity.” The core logic is that the long-term value of the asset is driven by its fundamentals and supply-demand dynamics. Continuous ETF capital inflows indicate institutional backing for XRP’s compliance status and utility, representing strong demand-side support. On the supply side, Ripple’s escrow releases are transparent and predictable. When demand growth outpaces supply, prices tend to rise. A dollar-cost averaging or phased accumulation strategy at lows, patiently waiting for catalysts from regulation, monetary policy, and ecosystem development in 2026, may be a better approach.

Regardless of strategy, risk management is paramount. In the current environment of macro data contradictions and market sentiment swings, avoid excessive leverage. Keep a close eye on key indicators: first, daily ETF capital flow data as a direct window into institutional sentiment; second, US inflation and employment data, and Fed officials’ speeches, which influence macro liquidity; third, progress in the US Senate’s crypto legislation, as positive signals can quickly boost market confidence. Until multiple signals align, expect continued volatility and divergence.