Based on past K-line data, the cryptocurrency market in 2026 seems unlikely to escape a deep bear market. 2014, 2018, and 2022 all experienced significant corrections. According to this model, Bitcoin in 2026 may fall back to $40,000 - $50,000, and altcoins could face a wave of zeroing out.

But there are many variables. The market structure has fundamentally changed. ETF and institutional allocation purchases, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds will passively invest at key levels, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to experience another major drop like in 2022. Moreover, the macro liquidity environment in 2026 differs from the rate hikes and balance sheet reductions of 2018 and 2022. Global credit currency purchasing power is declining, U.S. debt interest rates are soaring, fiat currency supply is increasing, and Bitcoin’s anti-inflation properties are becoming more prominent.

Additionally, by 2026, crypto applications will be vastly different from the past. Pumpfun, Hypeliquid, and other platforms will emerge, stablecoins integrated with PayPal, or killer applications could bring massive user funds.

From a probability perspective, there is a 50% chance of a soft landing with a slow bull market, where holding core tokens requires no stop-loss; a 20% chance of breaking the four-year cycle into a super bull; and a 30% chance of a complete collapse. For institutions, 2026 is a perfect allocation period, while retail investors can adopt bear market strategies. Re-dividing the ocean—are you surfing or just watching the waves? Like and share, let’s explore together!