The recent situation in the crypto world is indeed awkward—liquidity is drying up, prices are fluctuating repeatedly, and the speculative atmosphere is strong. Frankly speaking, if there's no profit to be made in this market, newcomers will hardly come in. This round of market movement seems to have been played out quite a bit; even Ethereum couldn't hold onto its previous highs. If even the gains from traditional assets can't outperform, who will still be willing to take the risk?

From a macro perspective, global liquidity is abundant, and the long-term cycle should be upward. But currently, the digital currency market shows a clear split: institutions are quietly accumulating, while veteran players and large holders are accelerating their sell-offs. The supply of new coins is too large, with early holders continuously unlocking and dumping, so the market indeed needs a thorough shakeout to digest these pressures.

When will the market pick up? My judgment is that it will happen when the US stock market is oscillating at high levels, commodities are showing weak gains, and both the A-shares and US stock markets are closed (such as around the Chinese New Year). Funds trapped in other assets may then flow back into the crypto space, giving Bitcoin a chance to rise. Ultimately, the market has no absolute right or wrong; it all depends on whether you can adapt to the current rhythm.