Remember that old routine? "Bitcoin moves first, Ethereum follows, and altcoins go wild." But by 2025, that script has been completely discarded.

What does the current situation look like? Ethereum is struggling at the $2800 level, while most altcoins have been halved or worse from their peaks, with declines over 80%. Funds are blocked by an invisible wall—this wall is called institutionalization.

Why has the old script become invalid? It's because the game rules have been completely rewritten. After the approval of spot ETFs, hundreds of billions of institutional funds flooded in, but almost all of this money was poured into Bitcoin. What do Wall Street fund managers want? Compliance and transparency, sufficient liquidity, and a strong brand—these conditions are all met by Bitcoin. As a result, Bitcoin has become a "digital tech stock," tied to the Nasdaq index, and has become increasingly unfamiliar compared to Ethereum and altcoins.

How did Ethereum fall behind? Simply put, it faced difficulties. Institutions are not interested in it; the scale of related ETFs cannot compare to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, as Layer 2 ecosystems become more mature, users are less likely to use ETH directly to pay Gas fees. Plus, with staking yields only around 3-4%, it’s not competitive with US Treasuries. The story of the "world computer" can no longer be convincingly told.

As for altcoins, they are basically at dusk. A large number of VC tokens drop in value immediately after launch; their market cap is artificially inflated, and circulating supply is painfully small, making retail investors the long-term bagholders. The frenzy around Meme coins has long since faded; now it’s just zero-sum gambling. Most critically, liquidity for altcoins on centralized exchanges is drying up. Once someone starts selling, it can trigger a chain reaction, and a death spiral can quickly unfold.

Does this mean the four-year cycle is over? The logic of the cycle itself hasn't changed, but the transmission chain of funds has broken. In the past, funds would overflow from Bitcoin and then impact other assets in turn. Now, this spillover effect has disappeared, and institutional funds are solely focused on Bitcoin.