Is the rate cut really coming? Market signals are just starting to light up!

$BTC $ETH The latest market movements are exciting, but the core issue is the bigger logic behind them.

According to real-time data from the US futures market, by the end of 2026, there may be two waves of rate cuts. It sounds far off, but the numbers tell a different story— the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year is only 15.5%, with a higher chance that rates will stay unchanged. But what about March? The situation begins to reverse. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 42.2%, and there’s even a 6% chance of a one-time 50 basis point cut.

This turning point is crucial. It indicates that the Federal Reserve’s stance is changing, shifting from "let’s see" to "we might need to act."

The underlying logic isn’t complicated. If inflation continues to moderate and the job market remains stable, the Fed will have more reasons to lower borrowing costs. How significant is this chain reaction? It could impact everything from stock market sentiment to mortgage rates and investment returns—almost everyone’s wallet could be affected. The crypto market is of course no exception; changes in liquidity environments often serve as a prelude to major market moves.

But honestly, right now it’s all about probabilities and expectations. The actual rate cut timetable depends on upcoming employment data and inflation reports. But the signals are already flashing—do you feel that sense of a "turning point"? Will it really materialize next year? Share your thoughts in the comments.