2025-12-25 08:26:45

Recently, during this Ethereum correction, the long orders have not been fully placed, which indicates a clear rebound demand at smaller timeframes. From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart has gradually formed a bullish flag pattern. If this pattern develops as expected, the upper target could test the region around 3000.

However, from a different angle, the 4-hour chart presents a much more complex situation. The current rebound can be understood as the B point correction phase, essentially building the process of forming a secondary high—once this structure completes, it is likely to enter a C wave accelerated decline. Based on this judgment, my trading plan is to wait for a shorting opportunity in the 3000-3020 range. If I can enter smoothly, the profit potential is at least over 100 points.

Recent market predictions have mostly been correct in direction, but due to a conservative style, I haven't actually entered many trades. The recent Christmas market volatility has been shrinking, and sometimes not taking a trade isn't necessarily a bad thing. Moreover, the risk-reward ratio for long positions is indeed decreasing, and the win rate isn't high enough to support sustained positions.

At this point, a more prudent choice is to prioritize stability—maintaining current profits and preventing large drawdowns. Missing some opportunities is acceptable, but getting caught on the wrong side is not. As long as the principal is still in hand, opportunities will always come later.

I also want to remind traders that when the risk-reward ratio is clearly unfavorable, it’s crucial to hold back. Good luck might bring a profit once or twice, but just one loss can wipe out previous gains or even threaten the principal. Self-restraint can sometimes be the biggest gain.

ETH-0.26%

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0xInsomnia

· 4h ago

Wait a minute, this logic is a bit convoluted. A flag pattern rises to 3000 in 1 hour, then in 4 hours there's a sharp decline in segment C? Feels like justifying a short position for oneself. I think the most valuable part of this viewpoint is actually the latter half. Not all waves are worth participating in, sometimes holding back is truly the most profitable move. Continuous winning can lead to complacency. One loss can wipe out all gains since the beginning, I've seen too many traders like that.

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GasFeeCrybaby

· 4h ago

Stability is really important, but missing the chance to enter at 3000 would be too unfortunate. --- Holding down the finger is really difficult; watching the opportunity come and having to hold back, I’m the kind of person who loses to myself. --- Maintaining a winning streak is still necessary; losing big and going back to square one too many times. --- A conservative style is sometimes just about earning peace of mind money; as long as the principal is safe. --- A hundred-point profit margin sounds good, but the 4-hour rhythm must be well managed. --- Didn't get the order? I often want to take it but just can't, hahaha. --- Lacking cost-effectiveness really requires patience; otherwise, you become a slave to luck.

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RugPullProphet

· 4h ago

Honestly, this wave is really about waiting for the right opportunity. I have the same idea about the 3000 resistance level. But compared to chasing gains and selling off, sometimes holding cash is indeed the most comfortable operation. --- Wait a minute, your logic about the B point rebound creating a secondary high is interesting, but I still think the signals in this round of the market are a bit blurry. --- The worst thing is the itch to trade. The market during Christmas these days is really just mosquito bites—why bother? --- With consecutive wins right there, greed can easily lead to a reversal. Saying this makes me feel at ease. --- The 3000-3020 range is really a good sniping point, but the key is whether you can hit the mark. Better to miss out than to go in the wrong direction. --- Holding down the finger is a brilliant move. Many people have given back their previous profits just because of the itch to trade. Self-control is the key. --- It feels like the current environment is just like this—opportunities and traps are often just a hair apart. Sometimes being conservative is the smartest move. --- I am optimistic about the 1-hour flag pattern targeting 3000, but the accelerated downtrend on the 4-hour chart needs to be observed further.

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BankruptcyArtist

· 4h ago

This guy is indeed speaking reasonably; waiting for the shorting opportunity is still necessary, not all market conditions are worth jumping in. Holding back my finger is too harsh a word; I only got trapped because I couldn't resist. I'm also watching the 3000-3020 range for shorting, just waiting to see if I can enter smoothly. A conservative style sometimes is the one that lasts the longest; compared to making quick money, I just want to protect the principal now. This rebound indeed has little heat; shrinking markets are the most annoying, but there's no rush. With a winning streak on display, I don't want to ruin my progress because of one or two trades; it's better to stay steady. If the bullish flag pattern really plays out, it would be interesting, but currently, the risk-reward ratio for going long isn't worth it. Self-control is more important than anything else; I learned this after suffering too many losses before.

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