Recently, a friend asked me whether Bitcoin's current market trend will repeat the four-year cycle pattern of previous years. To be honest, I've thought about this question a long time ago.

**Why I announced the start of an adjustment phase in early October**

In early October, Bitcoin was still around 124,000. I openly stated that the long-term cycle was entering a correction phase. At that time, I provided a bottom expectation: between 70,000 and 50,000. I also kept emphasizing one point — don’t rush to consider long-term accumulation until you see prices in the 50s or 60s.

**The upward cycle has a clear time pattern**

Looking at the weekly chart, the three major upward phases in history lasted approximately:
- First cycle: about 1070 days
- Second cycle: about 1070 days
- Third cycle (from 2022 to October this year): about 1060 days

See the pattern? The rallies generally fall within the 1000 to 1100 days window. This is the classic four-year cycle rule of Bitcoin. Coupled with the technical formations at the time—repeatedly hitting highs and failing to break through the top—I judged that this rally was likely to end soon. The current trend confirms that this judgment was correct.

**Regarding the timing and magnitude of the decline cycle**

Now, let's look at the decline cycles. The historical downturns...