2025-12-25 09:27:09

Recently, a DeFi researcher Ignas organized a set of market consensus for 2026 within the community, which is quite interesting. Let's discuss these viewpoints.

First, Bitcoin. BTC will still outperform the market, and almost no one disputes this. However, the threat of quantum computing is not just a theoretical risk; it’s a real and present danger. This potential technological risk is indeed worth paying attention to.

As for altcoins, most will continue to bleed. First, because token issuance is too aggressive (high emissions), and second, retail investors and institutions are not very interested, resulting in many tokens likely ending up worthless. Don’t expect a comprehensive altcoin season like in 2021 to return; it’s basically impossible.

The concentration of gains will be particularly high—besides Bitcoin, only a few winners will truly rise. The judgment of "depth without breadth" still holds pretty well. But there’s a hidden risk: governance conflicts within Aave have already cast a shadow over the entire DeFi token sector.

The evaluation logic is also changing. The market is no longer just looking at narrative stories but is starting to use "enterprise valuation" methodologies to assess protocols. Of course, the privacy coin rally led by $ZEC has somewhat cooled this trend, serving as a strong counterexample.

What token holders can actually get—rights and income potential—has become a core issue. Especially when comparing tokens to equity, this discussion will not end in 2025 but will extend into 2026.

Another big pitfall to watch out for: tokens with extremely high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) but very low circulating supply, which are long-term good targets for shorting.

On-chain real-world assets (RWA) and tokenization will grow explosively, no doubt. The problem is—there are hardly any truly effective assets to bet on this trend in the market. Projects like Plasma and Stablecoin tokens are typical examples of "bad TGE."

Finally, prediction markets and perpetual contracts will push financialization to the extreme, turning everything from real-world events to pre-IPO assets into tradable objects. This trend is already irreversible.

BTC1.43%

AAVE3.23%

ZEC0.37%

XPL10.09%

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 5h ago

Really, another year of "consensus," we said the same last year haha I've long given up on altcoins; the 2021 dream should be awakened The Aave governance mess indeed gave the entire sector a wake-up call; who still dares to touch it? FDV extremely high with low circulation? Isn't this just early institutional traps for retail investors? In the long run, it's a hunter's paradise for bears RWA explosive growth is fine, but I haven't seen any good targets for bottom-fishing; they're all lousy TGE Regarding the threat of quantum computing, we've been talking about it for years, but haven't seen it materialize. Not sure if it's due to technical limitations or market impatience Playing the prediction market to the extreme? I get this logic; anyway, everything can be bet on. Human nature's gambling instinct is unstoppable BTC is forever the winner, no doubt about that. Others rely purely on luck and news gaps Tokens versus equity? This question has been circling for years, and by 2026, we're still stuck in the same place

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LiquidityWhisperer

· 5h ago

Once again, the argument of "2026 consensus" is heard too often... However, Ignas's analysis this time really hits home, especially that line "deep but not broad." Altcoins are really going to fade out; with such aggressive emissions, who can handle it? Aave governance disputes have dragged down the entire DeFi sector, which is indeed annoying. But when it comes to RWA and finding good targets, I feel like it's just another pie in the sky. High FDV assets with low circulation have long been targeted by institutions; retail investors are still trying to bottom fish. If the prediction market and perpetuals continue like this, the market will truly become a casino. I do believe in the threat of quantum computing; BTC's cryptography will eventually need an upgrade.

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RugDocDetective

· 5h ago

I’m not that worried about the quantum computing threat; I feel we might have to wait another five years before it becomes a real issue. The death list of altcoins is about to get longer; I’ve been tired of that high-emissions routine for a long time. The chaos in Aave governance has indeed affected the confidence in the entire DeFi sector, and this is a warning signal. Tokens with high FDV and low circulation are all prey for shorting; this is very clear. The RWA concept is hot, but the truly investable assets are few and far between, mostly some "bad TGE" projects. Perpetual contracts have turned finance into gambling; 2026 will only be crazier.

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LootboxPhobia

· 6h ago

Shanzhai coins going to zero has been clear for a long time. Don't be fooled by FDV; those with small circulating supply are all prey for bears. RWA really can't explode. Now there's not even a target to buy, and that's the most heartbreaking part. Don't take the quantum computing part as a joke. When it really arrives, BTC will have to reconvene. Aave internal conflicts have dampened the entire DeFi space, which is actually reasonable. Comparing tokens to equity makes no sense; this issue will be debated until 2026. BTC outperforming the market is the basic scenario; there's no suspense. Financialization pushed to the extreme—anything can be traded, and the market is just this crazy.

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