The hottest topic in the crypto market these days is the $95.53 million net outflow from Ethereum spot ETFs. The community is divided: some are shouting "a bear market is coming," while others are starting to buy the dip, and some newcomers are directly consulting others on whether to close their positions. But if you jump to conclusions just based on this number, you’re really being fooled by surface phenomena.

Let’s start with the basic logic. The flow of funds into ETFs is essentially a "real-time vote" from the market. When spot ETFs were first approved, the market was jubilant, and funds flooded in like a flood, leading many to believe a strong rally was imminent. But this nearly $100 million net outflow is like pouring cold water on hot soup. However, there’s a key point that’s easy to overlook: net outflow ≠ bearish sentiment, and it certainly doesn’t directly mean a bear market. The focus should be on understanding "who is selling, to whom, and why."

Looking at the specific composition of the funds makes it interesting. The main players behind this net outflow are not retail investors, but short-term arbitrage funds. According to the latest holdings data, the proportion of large institutional holdings has remained basically unchanged. More notably, several leading institutions have quietly increased their Ethereum spot holdings off-exchange at the same time as the ETF shows net outflows. The logic behind this is clear: short-term trading funds take profits and exit, while long-term participants are opportunistically building positions.

Recently, Ethereum has been oscillating within the $2800-$3200 range, lacking a clear direction. Arbitrage funds have no patience for this kind of market, so they sell and move on. But institutional investors think differently. They focus on long-term logic and cost efficiency, and see short-term pressure as an opportunity to position themselves. So what you see as "flight" may actually just be a redistribution of chips.