Novartis Strengthens Long-term Outlook With Elevated Sales Targets for Key Oncology Drugs

Novartis has unveiled an ambitious mid-term strategy for 2025-2030, projecting a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-6% on a constant currency basis. This outlook represents a meaningful shift from the company’s previous 2024-2029 guidance of 6% CAGR cc, reflecting management’s confidence in its evolving portfolio.

Peak Sales Guidance Reaches New Heights

The pharmaceutical giant has substantially raised its revenue ceiling for two critical oncology assets. Kisqali, a cornerstone product, now carries peak sales potential of $10 billion or more—up from the prior estimate of $8 billion plus. Similarly, Scemblix’s peak sales guidance has been elevated from $3 billion plus to $4 billion plus. These upward revisions signal strong market validation and expanding clinical demand for Novartis’s oncology franchise.

Operating Efficiency Ahead of Schedule

Novartis achieved a core operating income margin of 41.2% during the first nine months of 2025—a full two years earlier than originally planned. The company remains committed to reaching 40% plus margins by 2029, despite anticipated dilution of 1-2 percentage points stemming from the planned Avidity Biosciences acquisition, scheduled to close in the first half of 2026.

Pipeline Momentum and Strategic M&A Activity

CEO Vas Narasimhan emphasized the company’s execution track record, noting that Novartis has completed more than 30 strategic transactions over the past two years to bolster its drug pipeline. The company also anticipates 15 or more potentially submission-enabling clinical readouts over the upcoming 24 months, underscoring robust mid-term development momentum that could reshape the competitive landscape in its focus therapeutic areas.