Historical data from the past 10 years confirms that Chinese investors cashing out and selling before the Spring Festival is merely short-term fluctuation, not a trend reversal. There was a correction before the festival in 8 years, but prices rose during the Spring Festival in 7 years, with an over 80% probability of a rebound after the festival. In 2018, after a sharp decline before the festival, there was a rebound of over 60% during the week of the Spring Festival. In 2024, the decline before the festival was 21.59%, and prices quickly entered an upward mode after the festival.

The core reason for selling is the rigid demand for Chinese New Year shopping and social obligations, which is a seasonal short-term pressure rather than a deterioration of market fundamentals. More importantly, every time there was a low point in selling in previous years, there were whales and institutions bottom-fishing— in 2018, a mysterious buyer spent $400 million at a low point to accumulate positions, ultimately earning substantial profits.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are releasing easing benefits, and the market supported by institutional dominance is far stronger than in previous years. Key advice: don’t be scared off by short-term selling pressure. Lightly position yourself at key points, maintain a 20% position limit, and stay away from high leverage. After the selling wave subsides, the convergence of post-festival capital inflows and rate cut effects presents a great opportunity to seize a certain market trend!#DrHan2025年终公开信