January 1 BTC Technical Strategy (As of 12:30, Price approximately 87,800 USD)

Core Judgment: Daily chart is bearish + 4-hour consolidation + hourly chart weak bullishness. During New Year's low liquidity, focus on trading within the 87,000–89,000 USD range, with key levels at 88,800 (strong resistance) and 87,000 (weak support). Breakouts to be followed with trend.

Key Price Levels (USD)

- Resistance: 88,800 (4-hour upper band) → 90,000 (psychological level) → 92,000 (medium-term resistance)
- Support: 87,000 (intraday weak support) → 86,000–86,500 (medium-term moving averages) → 85,769 (100-week EMA, strong support) → 82,000 (if broken, look lower)

Indicator Highlights

- Daily: Facing EMA30 resistance, moving averages in a bearish alignment; RSI≈41, MACD death cross with decreasing volume, weakening downward momentum but trend not reversed to bullish
- 4-hour: Range-bound between 88,800 upper band and 87,800 lower band; RSI neutral, no clear direction
- Hourly: RSI leaning bullish, MACD slight golden cross, limited short-term bullish momentum, susceptible to liquidity disturbances

Executable Trading Strategies (by cycle)

- Short-term (Intraday)
- Long positions: Gradually add small longs at 87,500–88,000, stop-loss at 87,000 lower bound, target 88,800; reduce positions at resistance, quick entry and exit
- Short positions: Light short near 88,800, stop-loss at 90,000, target 87,800; break 87,000 with small position to short, target 86,500
- Risk Management: Single position size ≤10%, do not hold large positions in low liquidity, take profit and reduce positions promptly
- Mid-term (1–2 weeks)
- Position building: Gradually build at 86,000–88,000, total position ≤30%
- Risk Management: Maintain above 85,769 (100-week EMA), reduce and wait if broken downward; add after stabilizing above 90,000, target 92,000
- Alternative: If 85,769 is broken, wait and look for low entry around 82,000
- Iron Rules for Risk Control
- Leverage ≤3x, avoid heavy positions; always set stop-loss per trade, no locked positions, no adding at dead points
- Monitor ETF fund flows, BTC/USD liquidity, and macro surprises; reduce or pause trading during liquidity shortages