January 06 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $93,900( as of the morning of January 6)

Short-term Outlook: Bullish primarily, multi-cycle technical indicators show an upward trend, with strong momentum on the 4-hour and daily charts. Daily RSI reaches 65.3, breaking above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating trend acceleration. The derivatives market shows an imbalance with a 91% liquidation of short positions in the past 24 hours totaling $170M(, and negative funding rates suggest shorts are paying longs, providing upward momentum. There is a 65% probability of testing $95,000 within 24-48 hours, but caution is advised due to overbought 4-hour RSI at 73.6), which could trigger a pullback.

Key Support Levels: $93,600( (1-hour Bollinger lower band / OBV pivot), $92,500) (1-hour / 4-hour EMA50 convergence zone), $91,600( (4-hour Bollinger middle band / SMA50)

Key Resistance Levels: $94,850) (1-hour Bollinger upper band), $95,000( (liquidation cluster / 4-hour Bollinger upper band extension)

Technical Analysis

) Multi-cycle indicator status

) Moving Average Analysis

Price currently above all short-term moving averages( (1-hour / 4-hour / daily SMA50 and EMA50)), indicating bullish control. Key MA levels:

• 1-hour EMA50: $92,500
• 4-hour SMA50: $91,600
• Daily SMA200: $106,585( (distant resistance)

Price still has about 13% room below the daily SMA200, indicating ample medium-term upside potential.

) Key Price Level Analysis

Resistance Levels:

• First resistance at $94,850, the 1-hour Bollinger upper band, short-term pressure
• Second resistance at $95,000, liquidation cluster / 4-hour Bollinger upper band extension, potential for short squeeze

Support Levels:

• First support at $93,600, recent OBV pivot, breaking below triggers $1.8B long liquidation
• Second support at $92,500, multi-cycle MA convergence zone, strong support
• Third support at $91,600, 4-hour middle band, ultimate support level

Derivatives Market

( Positions and Funding Rates

Total Open Interest: $61.6B), +2.44% over 24 hours###, supporting continued upward trend.

Funding Rates: Binance -0.000159%, Bybit -0.0029%( 8-hour cycle), negative rates mean shorts pay longs, reflecting market bullish sentiment.

24-hour Liquidation Data: Total $186M, with $170M (91%) from short liquidations, indicating shorts are being squeezed and fueling price increases.

( Options Market

Options Open Interest: $32B), +6% over 24 hours###, with maximum expiry pain points in the $90,000-95,000 range, aligning with current support and resistance levels.

Liquidation Risk Map

Below $93,000, $1.8B long liquidation volume accumulates; breaking below $93,600 could trigger cascading liquidations. Above $94,500, over $120M in short liquidations, with a breakout potentially accelerating gains. Downside cascade risk is significantly higher than upside.

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Market Sentiment

) Social Media Sentiment

Overall market sentiment is optimistic, with main narratives including:

Bullish Drivers:

• Institutional adoption signals strengthen; Japanese Finance Minister supports Bitcoin integration into the financial system, possibly catalyzing ETF launches
• Technical indicators like Stoch RSI show bullish crossovers, historically triggering significant rallies in 2012/2016/2020###
• Recapturing 2025 opening price and showing strength in early January, targeting $100,000-150,000

Key Views:

• Short-term potential for short squeeze towards $98,000, followed by a correction to around $54,000
• Bitcoin cycle evolution surpasses halving-driven dynamics, currently aligned with macro liquidity and corporate expansion( (e.g., ISM index >50), ETF fund flows like BlackRock’s iBit()
• Long-term forecast suggests peak between $250,000-543,000 by late 2026, driven by productivity-led deflation eventually prompting monetary expansion policies

) Institutional and KOL Opinions

Notable analysts like Tom Lee and Raoul Pal emphasize that the business cycle relevance surpasses halving mechanisms, viewing 2026 as an entry point into a liquidity-driven super cycle. Luke Gromen remains cautiously optimistic short-term but sees Bitcoin as a liquidity indicator long-term, ultimately benefiting from “nuclear-level money printing.”

Summary Outlook

Bitcoin is currently in a technical and sentiment-driven upward window. Multi-cycle indicators confirm an uptrend, and derivatives market imbalance supports further gains, with a high probability of testing $95,000 within 24-48 hours.

Bullish Scenario( Probability 65): Hold $93,600 support, break above $94,850 to accelerate towards $95,000, with short squeeze fueling the rally.

Pullback Scenario### Probability 35(: Overbought 4-hour RSI triggers profit-taking, retest of the $92,500 MA convergence zone before re-accumulating.

Trading Suggestion: Aggressive traders can look for long entries after confirming $93,600 stabilization, targeting $95,000; conservative traders wait for a pullback near $92,500 to enter. Set strict stop-loss below $91,600.