🚨BREAKING

CFTC CoT (Dec 23-30 data, released Jan 5):
• Ags: Corn/SRW wheat MM short
• Energy: P/M hedge short; MM long
• NatGas: Massive OI; Swap Dealers heavy short; MM long
• Electricity: Commercials led, MM weak
• Metals & other: Gold MM strong long; Copper OR short

Versus the previous release, grains show a reversal rather than continuation in speculative positioning. The key shift is in corn, where Managed Money moved back to a small net short, unwinding last week’s brief return to the long side. That signals a swing back toward defensive speculation rather than sustained bullish follow-through. SRW wheat remains net short, reinforcing that speculative appetite across grains is still selective and contract-specific, while commercial short hedging across the complex remains broadly unchanged and continues to anchor positioning.

In petroleum markets, the core structure is effectively unchanged. Producer/Merchant hedge shorts continue to dominate, and Managed Money remains long across key products, but without evidence of a meaningful build-up in new speculative exposure. The pattern still reflects position carry rather than rotation — steady demand assumptions, disciplined risk, and no sign of crowding on either side.

Natural gas remains structurally consistent with the prior report. Open interest is still extremely elevated, Swap Dealers continue to hold heavy net short exposure, and Managed Money stays net long. This confirms that the market remains driven primarily by dealer and physical-market hedging, with speculative participation behaving more like volatility engagement than directional control, similar to the earlier week.

Electricity positioning again shows commercial dominance with persistent fund participation. Managed Money exposure remains visible and meaningful across key hubs, indicating that speculative interest has not faded, even as utilities and producers continue to account for the bulk of total positioning.

In metals, the tone remains steady rather than directional. Gold continues to hold strong Managed Money net longs, reinforcing its status as a defensive macro hedge rather than a momentum trade. Copper remains characterized by Other Reportables net short, suggesting that industrial-demand confidence has not materially improved relative to the prior update.

Summing up, compared with the previous report, the notable shift is the corn turn back to MM net short, while the rest of the complex shows persistence rather than rotation. Speculative positioning remains selective and disciplined, with commercial hedging still setting the foundation across energy, gas, power, and metals.