2026-01-08 01:20:21

#数字资产行情上升 When rate cuts come, the market falls; but what about the opposite—no rate cuts and instead a rise?

The US just released December employment data, showing a steady recovery in employment. This directly disrupted market expectations of rate cuts. In the federal funds futures market, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped from 17.7% yesterday to 11.1%, a significant decline.

Looking at CME's forecast panel, the probability of a rate cut in January also fell from 10% to 8%.

The underlying logic is quite straightforward: strong employment data → no reason for the Fed to rush to cut rates → rate cut expectations fade → market pricing changes. The old pattern was rate cuts = stimulation = market rise, but now a reverse logic has emerged—the fading of rate cut expectations has become a new market variable.

Many people are still using old experiences to interpret the market, but this time the Fed's attitude is different.

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staking_gramps

· 01-10 09:30

Ha, as soon as the employment data is released, the rate cut dream is shattered, and the market's reverse operation truly left everyone stunned. Really, those waiting for a rate cut to rescue the market are probably going to be disappointed. Federal Reserve: My employment is strong, why should I rush to cut rates, haha. The rate cut expectation dropped from 17.7% to 11.1%, what a gap... someone must be caught in a trap. The reverse logic has started to play, the old tricks are failing, and the new game rules—whoever masters them will be the winner. This time is different; the Federal Reserve's attitude has hardened, and we need to relearn how to read the market.

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BearMarketGardener

· 01-08 01:50

Wait, employment strength actually decreases the probability of rate cuts? This logic has me confused. The old tricks really need to change; the Federal Reserve is truly playing differently this time. It's another employment data surprise; the crypto circle always moves along with macro trends. With no more rate cut expectations, does that mean my rebound rally is gone?

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BlockchainFoodie

· 01-08 01:50

honestly this is giving the same energy as a poorly executed smart contract recipe—everyone's still using yesterday's code but the market just deployed a new patch. the fed's basically saying "nah we're good on the stimulus appetizer" and suddenly the whole dinner table flips. wild how fast the consensus breaks when the fundamentals change, fr fr

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DaoTherapy

· 01-08 01:50

Strong employment data, shattered rate cut dreams—this routine is really top-notch. --- Wait, so now not cutting rates is actually good? My mind is a bit confused. --- Old experiences really do harm; still waiting for rate cuts to rescue the market. --- This time, the Federal Reserve played reverse operation, and the market was directly stunned, haha. --- Strong employment = no reason to cut rates; I just can't keep up with this logic. --- That's why I hate following the crowd; I'm always a step behind. --- The rate cut expectation dropped from 17.7% to 11.1%, a sure-fire shorting opportunity. --- Who is still using last year's tactics to analyze the market? It's time to wake up. --- As soon as the reverse logic appears, retail investors fall straight into the trap—that's the current market. --- Market rising? I think it's just psychological expectations dancing.

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HashBrownies

· 01-08 01:37

Another reverse tactic, the market is really tired of the old tricks --- Strong employment → No rate cut → Market moves in the opposite direction? I think the market is collectively falling into a trap --- Basically, it's still the expectation that this ghost is haunting us. When a rate cut doesn't happen, it actually stimulates even more --- Wow, it turns out that the disappearance of rate cut expectations can cause more trouble than the cut itself? That logic is really brilliant --- Old retail investors are still waiting for a rate cut to rescue the market, but institutions have already turned around --- The Fed's attitude is changing really fast. I thought we could enjoy the benefits of a rate cut by the end of the year --- It's a bit hard to hold on now. Can any expectation now be used to reverse and cut the leeks? --- As soon as the employment data is released, the market crashes. This move is really ruthless

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tokenomics_truther

· 01-08 01:21

Still playing the reverse operation trick, the market is really incredible --- So no rate cut is actually good news? I can't quite follow this logic --- Strong employment signals no rate cut, but it still feels like the crypto circle is still hyping this story --- The old routines should have changed long ago, the Federal Reserve doesn't play by the usual rules at all --- Futures probability dropped from 17 to 11, the market really reversed overnight --- Wait, no rate cut and crypto prices are rising? Did those who hoarded earlier suffer huge losses? --- Everyone in this game is betting on the Federal Reserve's intentions; no one is paying attention to the fundamentals --- The fading of rate cut expectations has become a new variable? Isn't this just a new excuse for speculation --- Market pricing changes at an absurd speed, indicating no one truly understands this logic --- As soon as the employment data is released, the narrative changes; retail investors are still catching the bag

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