#数字资产行情上升 Newcomers often get confused by the fluctuations in gold prices when they first enter the market. In fact, at its core, the rise and fall of gold are driven by just a few key factors. Mastering these will allow you to predict half of the market movements.

**The Federal Reserve's actions are the most crucial**

When the Federal Reserve meets to decide interest rates, gold often reacts strongly. When interest rates rise, gold tends to be suppressed—because investors shift to higher-yield assets. Conversely, when rates are cut or expectations turn dovish, gold tends to perform better.

Besides official decisions, even a single statement from the Fed Chair or committee members can trigger market re-pricing. Policy signals revealed in their speeches (such as shifting from tightening to easing) usually cause rapid fluctuations in gold prices.

Don't overlook the CPI and PCE inflation data. When inflation is high, gold's appeal as an inflation hedge increases. At the same time, the Fed will adjust its policy stance based on these data, indirectly affecting gold.

**US economic data is an important reference**

Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and small non-farm data all reflect the true state of the US economy. When the economy is strong, expectations for rate hikes increase, putting pressure on gold. When signs of economic weakness appear, investors tend to buy gold to hedge risks.

Slowing GDP growth is also positive for gold. Slower economic growth means higher recession risk, boosting safe-haven sentiment and increasing gold demand.

**Geopolitical situations often create short-term opportunities**

International conflicts, regional tensions, and financial crises can cause safe-haven funds to flow quickly into gold. The surges in gold prices triggered by such events can be very sharp, as buying momentum is rapid.

**Pay attention to these secondary factors**

The US dollar index and gold have an inverse relationship—when the dollar strengthens, gold is usually suppressed; when the dollar weakens, gold can breathe freely.

Whether central banks around the world continue to buy gold is also worth watching. Large-scale gold purchases create long-term demand support, which is a bullish factor.

Crude oil prices and gold sometimes move in the same direction, especially during periods of strong inflation expectations. Rising oil prices often push gold higher simultaneously.

Monitoring these four dimensions well will help you grasp the core logic of gold trading. In specific operations, you should also consider real-time market conditions and your own risk tolerance.