Prediction markets are painting an interesting picture of 2026: Polymarket is currently pricing in just a 21% probability that Elon Musk formally rejoins Trump's administration, even though he's been actively supporting the cause from the outside. The gap between his unofficial influence and the betting odds raises questions about what formal appointment would actually change—or whether staying independent keeps more options on the table for him.

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GateUser-26d7f434vip
· 8h ago
A 21% chance? Uh, these gamblers probably didn't see the situation clearly.
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EthSandwichHerovip
· 01-09 17:20
21%? Isn't that odds too low? Elon Musk's influence is already so significant now, isn't it worth betting?
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CascadingDipBuyervip
· 01-09 01:52
Haha, 21% means they probably won't officially join. Smart people know that causing trouble outside is actually more free.
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CryingOldWalletvip
· 01-09 01:48
21%? That's an incredibly low probability. Elon Musk has already been causing trouble outside, so why does he have to go in officially?
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LadderToolGuyvip
· 01-09 01:47
Hey, a 21% chance is honestly a bit low. Elon Musk is already working so hard... --- Pretend to be an independent persona to earn more; actually getting employed might just trap you. --- Hey, I really don't understand. Does a formal appointment really count? His influence is already exploding. --- Polymarket folks really dare to bet; I feel like the odds should be doubled. --- I just want to know what would happen if he actually joins; could he be even more awesome than now...
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HappyMinerUnclevip
· 01-09 01:47
Only 21%? It seems the market is underestimating Musk's influence. His current stance actually gives him more freedom.
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FloorSweepervip
· 01-09 01:35
Hmm, a 21% probability suggests that everyone actually doesn't really believe he will truly enter the market.
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