What is the true scale of Bitcoin's user base? According to the latest data estimates, as of January this year, the core user group has reached approximately 350 million people. It sounds like a lot, but this is just the beginning—if long-term optimistic expectations hold, by 2035 this number could soar to 1-1.2 billion, with the ultimate ceiling depending on the global penetration rate of digital finance and the evolution of regulatory frameworks in various countries.

Several key factors driving growth are particularly worth noting. Institutional-grade ETFs have evolved from niche tools to mainstream allocation options, with more traditional funds entering through this channel. Meanwhile, some sovereign nations are beginning to view Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. The expansion of payment applications and DeFi ecosystems is also gradually opening up new use cases.

But reality isn't that simple. Regulatory differences between regions are significant, and a blockchain address does not equate to an independent user. The adoption of hardware wallets is still far from widespread. In the short term, user growth may fluctuate in line with ETF capital inflows. The real inflection point is likely to occur around 2030—by then, the user scale is expected to surpass 500 million, a number already close to the scale of global gold investors. The long-term ceiling ultimately depends on the speed of regulatory policy implementation and whether there are breakthroughs in underlying technology.