Recently, the Federal Reserve Chair explicitly signaled a shift, pointing directly to a rate cut target in 2026. A full 1.5 percentage points reduction is on the table—this is not a minor adjustment but a substantial policy change.

From a historical perspective, once a rate cut cycle begins, market dynamics are reshaped accordingly. Liquidity gates reopen, and traditional financial assets as well as the crypto markets tend to be pushed higher. The underlying logic is quite simple—cheap funds will always find a place to go.

**Data-Driven Observations**

Over the past 30 years, the Federal Reserve has experienced 6 rate cut cycles. In 5 of those instances, the S&P 500 rose after the announcement. This success rate is nearly 84%. If this 1.5% cut actually materializes, market expectations could release approximately $2.3 trillion in new liquidity. The number sounds large, but in the context of global asset allocation, it’s a significant injection.

Interest rate-sensitive sectors are usually the first to benefit. Technology and real estate, in particular, have seen average gains of 35% during previous rate cut cycles. The 2026 timeline coincides with the current inflation decline cycle, making the timing quite precise from a macro perspective.

**Current Market Reactions**

Market pricing mechanisms have already begun to respond in advance. The US Treasury yield curve has steepened first, and the US dollar index has shown signs of loosening. This indicates that the reallocation of funds has quietly started—some institutions may be adjusting their positions.

For participants holding BTC, ETH, or other risk assets, what does this signal mean? Rate cut cycles are often windows for asset re-pricing. But which directions will generate excess returns, and which hidden risks might be overlooked? These questions require more calm and careful consideration.

**Points Worth Reflecting On**

Is this rate cut in 2026 a genuine policy move or an early release of expectations? Will history simply repeat itself? How does this cycle fundamentally differ from previous ones? Where are the structural opportunities and risks in the market? These are not black-and-white questions but require individual assessment based on one’s risk tolerance.

In summary, the Fed’s statements have opened up space for imagination in the market. The policy preview two years in advance provides all participants with enough time to react. What’s your view on this wave of change?