According to the latest global economic outlook, the top three economies in the world by 2026 are basically confirmed. The United States remains firmly in first place, with a nominal GDP of 31.8 trillion USD continuing to expand, with an expected growth rate of around 2.1%, and inflationary pressures still present. China ranks second with 20.7 trillion USD; this figure reflects that the impact of the RMB depreciation has been gradually absorbed, and the market generally expects the RMB to appreciate in 2026. Germany remains in third place with 5.3 trillion USD; in recent years, the euro's appreciation has indeed provided significant support to the German economy.

Interestingly, India may surpass Japan in 2026, taking the fourth spot. The figure of 4.5 trillion USD has been announced multiple times by Indian officials, but strictly speaking, it is only an expectation, and final confirmation will come in 2027. There is a hidden risk here—exchange rate movements may not follow expectations. The depreciation pressure on the rupee is actually greater than that on the yen. By then, India might appear to be ahead in data, but if the exchange rate fluctuates, it could turn out to be a disadvantage. However, in terms of economic growth rate, the expected 6.2% increase in India is indeed the fastest among major countries. This has been the case in recent years, and surpassing Japan is only a matter of time.

Behind them are the UK, France, Italy, Russia, and Canada. To be honest, predictions from major institutions lately have been increasing, but they all seem somewhat powerless. The world situation is unstable, and no matter how impressive the GDP figures are, they cannot change this reality—countries are competing with each other in technology, industry, and geopolitical influence. At such times, looking solely at GDP rankings seems very superficial. The GDP of those European countries exceeds Russia's by a large margin, but the result is often frightening; the US GDP keeps rising, but at the cost of skyrocketing living costs. The gap between economic size and actual influence is widening.