December 2025 US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Becomes the Key to Starting the Year

Tonight at 21:30, the December 2025 US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released with great anticipation. As the first key economic data of 2026, its performance will directly influence global markets.
Previously affected by government shutdowns and federal employee "buyout resignations," the prior data showed significant volatility. Market expectations initially projected an increase of 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly slightly falling back to 4.5% due to technical factors. However, market forecasts have since diverged, with institutions like Citibank predicting an increase of 75,000 jobs and the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.7%. Notably, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has previously hinted that official employment data may be systematically overestimated by 60,000 jobs per month, and actual employment growth might be close to stagnation or even negative growth. This statement has made the unemployment rate the central focus of this report.