#比特币长期发展趋势 On-chain data confirms a key turning point: Bitcoin demand has fallen below the long-term trend. Let's look at some hard indicators — US spot ETF net inflows turned into net outflows in Q4, with a reduction of about 24,000 BTC; addresses holding 100-1000 BTC also started to lag, a pattern I saw once at the end of 2021.

A price falling below the 365-day moving average is not just a technical decoration; this line has historically been a dividing line between bull and bear markets. Since October this year, demand growth has not returned above the trend, indicating that the three main forces that previously drove prices — approval of spot ETFs, election expectations, and corporate treasury enthusiasm — have largely absorbed the incremental demand.

With new demand nearly exhausted, support factors are waning, signaling a recession — a key indicator of a bear market's progression. In the short term, this pattern is unlikely to reverse quickly unless new, sufficiently large demand sources emerge. The current focus is on observing the true movements of whales and institutions — if their holdings continue to decline, the downside potential should be taken seriously.