This morning, Trump was up to his old tricks again. This time he announced a plan to spend $200 billion on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which immediately stirred up the market. ETH's reaction at the time was one word—crazy. After some back-and-forth, it’s still hovering around $3,110. Many are debating: is this the start of a new rebound, or are we about to get trapped again?

First, let’s talk about what’s happening on the policy front. The candidate for Federal Reserve Chair is becoming clearer. Trump didn’t say it directly, but he dropped a hint that "the decision has been made," prompting the market to start speculating—most likely, they’ll choose someone "easy to work with." Once this expectation emerged, the probability of rate cuts was again heated up.

More importantly, this $200 billion MBS purchase plan. On the surface, it’s aimed at the housing loan market, trying to lower mortgage rates. But you understand the market—once the government starts pumping money, risk asset sentiment tends to rise. Cryptocurrencies also caught some heat—liquidity expectations improve, and money naturally flows into risk assets.

The current question is, how long can this move last? The details of policy implementation and how the Fed will respond afterward—these uncertainties could keep the market volatile. In the short term, the news is definitely bullish, but volatility will likely increase as well. To hit the right timing precisely, experience is truly essential.